Archive
Exit Discrimination in the NFL: A Duration Analysis of Career Length
Exit Discrimination in the NFL: A Duration Analysis of Career Length
Source: Research Papers in Economics
Using a panel study of annual NFL data (2000–2008) we test for exit discrimination on career length in the NFL. We focus on six positional groups: defensive backs, defensive linemen, linebackers, running backs, tight ends and wide receivers. We test for exit discrimination using both parametric and semi-parametric hazard models. In our analysis, in addition to race, we include performance variables to determine their importance in determining career length. Our analysis posits the question: Do team owners in the pursuit of championships keep talented players regardless of their race?
The Emerald Guide to Baseball 2013
The Emerald Guide to Baseball 2013 (PDF)
Source: Society for American Baseball Research
The Emerald Guide to Baseball is our attempt to fill the gap in the historical record created by the recent demise of the Sporting News Baseball Guide. First published in 1942, Sporting News Guide was truly the annual book of record for our National Pastime. It is our great privilege to document for posterity a slice of recent baseball history in our new book.
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Historically, the primary purpose of annual baseball guides has been the publication of the official league standings plus the official team and individual statistics for both Major League Baseball and Minor League Baseball. Many other types of content have been included in the annual guides over the years, but these core statistics were always the book’s raison d’etre.
Our new Emerald Guide follows faithfully in that tradition, containing the official batting, pitching, and fielding statistics for every team and every player in the Major Leagues plus extensive lists of league leaders. As with the TSN Guides, the Minor League Baseball section in our book includes the Mexican League but does not include independent leagues, foreign leagues, or winter leagues (aside from standings and leaders for the Dominican and Venezuelan Summer Leagues).
Another key function that the annual guides have historically filled is presenting information on the upcoming major league season. The World Wide Web has become the place most fans look for such information in recent years, but it is still important for this information to be recorded for posterity. The Web is a wonderful tool but too much of its content is ephemeral.
We are proud to publish in our new Emerald Guide an enormous amount of information that was never included between the covers of the old TSN Guides. We hope you like the editorial mix we chose. Our book does not include every type of information that the old Sporting News Guides printed, however.
Baseball Team Valuations 2013: Yankees On Top At $2.3 Billion
Baseball Team Valuations 2013: Yankees On Top At $2.3 Billion
Source: Forbes
You need a new type of scorecard to accurately measure the wealth of Major League Baseball these days because team owners are scoring in so many different ways.
Upshot: The average baseball team is now worth $744 million, 23% more than a year ago and the largest increase since we began tracking MLB finances in 1998. During the 2012 season, revenue (net of stadium debt service) rose 7%, to an average of $227 million per team. Operating income (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) per team fell 9%, to $13.1 million, mainly due to higher player costs and stadium expenses.
Why did values climb sharply despite falling profitability? Because to fully capture the value of MLB’s 30 teams it is necessary to keep score of the sport’s full portfolio of assets rather than just the cash-flow of the individual franchises. Our valuations were boosted by the escalating television rights fees that flow to each team, and the climbing values of Major League Baseball Advanced Media and the league’s investment fund.
National broadcasting fees are baseball’s biggest chunk of equally-shared revenue. Last year, Fox, TBS and ESPN inked new, eight-year broadcasting deals that will bring MLB a total of $12.4 billion over eight years–an average of $52 million a season for each of the league’s 30 teams–through 2021. The new deals begin with the 2014 season and are worth more than twice the league’s existing television contracts. Baseball has more inventory than any sport and with the national cable sports networks Fox Sports One, ESPN and NBC Sports battling it out for supremacy over couch potatoes, MLB was in a particularly strong negotiating position.
Super Bowl Tax Bill
Source: Tax Foundation
As the Baltimore Ravens bask in their glory after their Sunday night Super Bowl XLVII victory against the San Francisco 49ers, they must now prepare to be hit by the the federal income tax. All 53 players on the roster make at least $390,000, so after subtracting a personal exemption (which is actually phased out at $250,000) and a standard deduction, they would all face the top federal income tax rate of 39.6% on their $150,000 in post season earnings for their victories in the Division Playoff, the Conference Championship Game, and the Super Bowl.
Although these players have the ability to pay their taxes when receiving an NFL salary and are amongst the top percent of earners in the United States, the amount of federal income taxes owed on their salaries and post season shares is shocking when only a personal exemption and a standard deduction is subtracted. Haloti Nagata as the highest earner with a 2012 salary of $10.4 million would pay around $4.1 million if this income and his post season income both accrued in 2013. This is probably an overstatement of actual income tax paid because most players would take advantage of itemized deductions (which are now limited) and credits to lower their tax liability to some degree. But even if he had $1 million in itemized deductions, he would still end up paying $3.8 million in federal income tax, plus another $250,000 in federal payroll tax, and that does not include the employer portion of payroll taxes. His effective federal tax rate would be 39 percent.
Super Bowl XLVII Draws 108.7 Million Viewers, 26.1 Million Tweets
Super Bowl XLVII Draws 108.7 Million Viewers, 26.1 Million Tweets
Source: Nielsen
According to Nielsen, Sunday’s telecast of Super Bowl XLVII on CBS drew an average audience of 108.7 million viewers. The game, in which the Baltimore Ravens defeated the San Francisco 49ers 34 to 31, was viewed in 53 million homes and had a 46.4 U.S. household rating. The in-game blackout, being reported as a separated telecast, averaged 106.6 million viewers. Separate program reporting is typically done when there are delays in live programming.
According to SocialGuide’s 2013 Super Bowl Advertising Report, 5.3 million people sent out 26.1 million tweets during the course of the entire game.
Body Mass Index, Playing Position, Race, and the Cardiovascular Mortality of Retired Professional Football Players
Body Mass Index, Playing Position, Race, and the Cardiovascular Mortality of Retired Professional Football Players
Source: American Journal of Cardiology
Concern exists about cardiovascular disease (CVD) in professional football players. We examined whether playing position and size influence CVD mortality in 3,439 National Football League players with ≥5 pension-credited playing seasons from 1959 to 1988. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) compared player mortality through 2007 to the United States population of men stratified by age, race, and calendar year. Cox proportional hazards models evaluated associations of playing-time body mass index (BMI), race, and position with CVD mortality. Overall player mortality was significantly decreased (SMR 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.48 to 0.59) as was mortality from cancer (SMR 0.58, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.72), and CVD (SMR 0.68, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.81). CVD mortality was increased for defensive linemen (SMR 1.42, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.92) but not for offensive linemen (SMR 0.70, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.05). Defensive linemen’s cardiomyopathy mortality was also increased (SMR 5.34, 95% CI 2.30 to 10.5). Internal analyses found that CVD mortality was increased for players of nonwhite race (hazard ratio 1.69, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.51). After adjusting for age, race, and calendar year, CVD mortality was increased for those with a playing-time BMI ≥30 kg/m2 (hazard ratio 2.02, 95% CI 1.06 to 3.85) and for defensive linemen compared to offensive linemen (hazard ratio 2.07, 95% CI 1.24 to 3.46). In conclusion, National Football League players from the 1959 through 1988 seasons had decreased overall mortality but those with a playing-time BMI ≥30 kg/m2 had 2 times the risk of CVD mortality compared to other players and African-American players and defensive linemen had higher CVD mortality compared to other players even after adjusting for playing-time BMI.
Minimum Pay Scale and Career Length in the NBA
Minimum Pay Scale and Career Length in the NBA (PDF)
Source: Research Papers in Economics
We use data from the National Basketball Association (NBA) to analyze the impact of minimum salaries on an employee’s career length. The NBA has a salary structure in which the minimum salary a player can receive increases with the player’s years of experience. Salary schedules similar to the NBA’s exist in public education, federal government agencies, the Episcopalian church, and unionized industries. Even though the magnitude of the salaries in the NBA differs from other industries, this study provides insight to the impact of this type of salary structure on career length. Using duration analysis, we find statistically significant evidence that minimum salaries shorten career length.
A Note on the “Linsanity” of Measuring the Relative Efficiency of National Basketball Association (NBA) Guards
A Note on the “Linsanity” of Measuring the Relative Efficiency of National Basketball Association (NBA) Guards (PDF)
Source: Research Papers in Economics
This note examines the productive efficiency of 62 starting guards during the 2011/12 National Basketball Association (NBA) season. This period coincides with the phenomenal and largely unanticipated performance of New York Knicks’ starting point guard Jeremy Lin and the attendant public and media hype known as Linsanity. We employ a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach that includes allowance for an undesirable output, here turnovers per game, with the desirable outputs of points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks per game and an input of minutes per game. The results indicate that depending upon the specification, between 29 and 42 percent of NBA guards are fully efficient, including Jeremy Lin, with a mean inefficiency of 3.7 and 19.2 percent. However, while Jeremy Lin is technically efficient, he seldom serves as a benchmark for inefficient players, at least when compared with established players such as Chris Paul and Dwayne Wade. This suggests the uniqueness of Jeremy Lin’s productive solution and may explain why his unique style of play, encompassing individual brilliance, unselfish play, and team leadership, is of such broad public appeal.
Bayesball: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Evaluating Fielding in Major League Baseball
Bayesball: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Evaluating Fielding in Major League Baseball (PDF)
Source: Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
The use of statistical modeling in baseball has received substantial attention recently in both the media and academic community. We focus on a relatively under-explored topic: the use of statistical models for the analysis of fielding based on high-resolution data consisting of on-field location of batted balls. We combine spatial modeling with a hierarchical Bayesian structure in order to evaluate the performance of individual fielders while sharing information between fielders at each position. We present results across four seasons of MLB data (2002–2005) and compare our approach to other fielding evaluation procedures.
See: Sports by the Numbers: Predicting Winners and Losers (Knowledge@Wharton Today)
Outcome Uncertainty, Reference-Dependent Preferences and Live Game Attendance
Outcome Uncertainty, Reference-Dependent Preferences and Live Game Attendance (PDF)
Source: Research Papers in Economics
We develop a consumer choice model of live attendance at a sporting event with reference-dependent preferences. The predictions of the model motivate the “uncertainty of outcome hypothesis” (UOH) as well as fan’s desire to see upsets and to simply see the home team win games, depending on the importance of the reference-dependent preferences and loss aversion. A critical review of previous empirical tests of the UOH reveals significant support for models with reference-dependent preferences, but less support for the UOH. New empirical evidence from Major League Baseball supports the loss aversion version of the model.a
Play ball! How MLB teams rank in political giving
Play ball! How MLB teams rank in political giving
Source: Sunlight Foundation
It’s opening day of Major League Baseball’s 2012 season, so Sunlight has decided to take a look at which teams are the heaviest hitters when it comes to political giving.
Turns out the deepest pockets don’t always correlate with most home runs.
The Baltimore Orioles finished dead last in the American League East last year with a dismal record of 63 wins and 93 losses, but giving by their politically active owner, Peter Angelos, has made the Charm City team the champions of campaign giving.
Angelos gave more in the 2002 election cycle–some $2.1 million–than he did in any other. Perhaps the longtime Democratic donor wanted to influence the legislative fight to authorize the Department of Homeland Security, had a bitter taste left by the Supreme Court’s decision in Bush v. Gore, or wanted to distract himself from an announcement made by Commissioner Bud Selig that neighboring Washington — which Angelos long regarded as part of his market — was the prime choice to relocate the Montreal Expos. The O’s owner tried to block the move, failed, but did manage to win concessions including other owners guaranteeing a $365 million sales price should Angelos sell the team. He also forced an unfavorable TV deal on the team — which has prompted grousing but no serious pushback from members of Congress who, after all, control baseball’s antitrust exemption.
Another team that makes the top five of political givers, the Philadelphia Phillies, began upping contributions to state lawmakers in the late 1990s, just as the professional sports teams in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh began pressing the Pennsylvania legislature for funding for new stadiums. The legislature cooperated and the Phillies new Citizens Bank Park opened in 2004.
Despite the New York Yankees’ gold-plated payroll and the fact that late owner George Steinbrenner, was once temporarily suspended from baseball for making illegal campaign contributions to former president Richard Nixon, the lads in pinstripes finish out of the top-five of baseball’s campaign givers.
Explaining Changes in Organizational Form: The Case of Professional Baseball
The Grossman-Hart-Moore (GHM) property rights model predicts the assignment of residual claims to the party with the largest effect on an asset’s value. While plausible, the model has proven relatively hard to test. In this paper, we develop a formal model based on GHM, and use it to analyze an industry that has seen substantial changes in the nature of asset ownership over time: professional baseball. Early in the 20th century, major and minor league baseball teams operated as separate and independent entities, By the middle of the 20th century, the vast majority of minor league teams had become “affiliates” of major league franchises, either through vertical integration or contractual agreements. By the end of the 20th century, full vertical integration had become much less common (and was restricted mostly to the lower minor league classifications), while the nature of contractual claims was essentially split, with major league clubs holding rights over players and coaches and minor league “owners” holding rights over local revenue sources. To explain these changes, we focus on two important functions of minor league baseball: providing local entertainment and training potential major league players. We conclude that as the relative value of these activities changed, so did the structure of ownership.
Record Number Of Americans To Celebrate Super Bowl This Year With Plans To Spend $11 Billion
Love them or loathe them, two football titans will fight it out on Super Bowl Sunday, and more Americans than ever will join them to celebrate the big game. According to a new survey by the Retail Advertising and Marketing Association conducted by BIGinsight, 173 million people will watch the game Sunday, February 5, the most in the survey’s eight-year history and up from an estimated 171 million last year. Consumer spending for the Super Bowl will reach an all-time high, too, with the average game-watcher expected to shell out $63.87 on related merchandise, apparel and snacks, up from $59.33 last year. Total Super Bowl spending is expected to reach $11.0 billion.
+ Full Survey Results (PDF)
The Changing Face of the Super Bowl Audience: Wealthier, More Diverse
The Changing Face of the Super Bowl Audience: Wealthier, More DiverseSource: Nielsen
One fact is clear: The Super Bowl audience is big — attracting a record-breaking 111.5 million viewers in 2011, up from 90.7 million five years ago and 87.0 million in 2002. But, according to Nielsen’s State of the Media: Year in Sports, the Super Bowl audience is changing in other ways as well: it’s wealthier, increasingly female and diverse.
- Higher Household Income: In 2011, 30 percent of the viewers had a household income of $100,000+, nearly double the number in 2002.
- Greater Audience Diversity: The Super Bowl is bringing new audiences into the fold. Hispanics and African-Americans are watching the game at higher levels than before—both increased their audience share by two percentage points since 2002. Women are also watching at higher levels, accounting for 46 percent of the Super Bowl audience, compared to 43 percent in 2002.
- Family Affair: One area where the Super Bowl audience has stayed relatively the same is age, meaning that the game continues to attract a wide audience of all ages.
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Super Bowl’s Greatest Hits: Top 10 Most Liked Ads of the Past Five Years
Super Bowl’s Greatest Hits: Top 10 Most Liked Ads of the Past Five YearsSource: Nielsen
Super Bowl ads are known for generating buzz—and viewers—but not all creatives are created equal. Nielsen reveals America’s most liked commercials over the past five years, and the NFL itself tops the list. Regardless of category, emotional appeals, humor, non-fatal violence, and animals bolster quality ads and strongly resonate with consumers when executed well.
Of the 144 brands that have advertised during the Super Bowl over the past five years, only a handful of companies have had a presence in every one. From 2007-2011, these seven have earn honorable mentions for being the most resilient Super Bowl advertisers—Budweiser, CareerBuilder, Coca-Cola, Doritos, E*Trade, GoDaddy.com, and the NFL—and five also hold the distinction of being among the ten best liked Super Bowl ads of the past five years.
The Super Bowl Investment: Ad Spend Trends Over the Past Five Super Bowls
The Super Bowl Investment: Ad Spend Trends Over the Past Five Super BowlsSource: Nielsen
While Super Bowl ads require a substantial investment, they tend to get a measurable marketing bump from their prominent placement. According to Nielsen, ads that aired during 2011’s Super Bowl XLV were, on average, 58 percent more memorable than commercials airing during regular programming in the first quarter of 2011. In addition, brand awareness for commercials airing during the Super Bowl was up to 275 percent higher than awareness for the same creative during regular programming.
Beauty and Productivity: The Case of the Ladies Professional Golf Association
Beauty and Productivity: The Case of the Ladies Professional Golf Association (PDF)Source: Research Papers in Economics
There is much evidence that attractive looking workers earn more than average-looking workers, even after controlling for a variety of individual characteristics. The presence of such beauty premiums may influence the labor supply decisions of attractive workers. For example, if one unit of a product by an attractive worker is more rewarded than that by her less attractive coworker, the attractive worker may put more effort into improving her productivity. We examine this possibility by analyzing panel data for individual female golfers participating in the Ladies Professional Golf Association (LPGA) tour. We find that attractive golfers record lower average scores and earn more prize money than average-looking players, even when controlling for player experience and other variables related to their natural talents. This finding is consistent with the notion that physical appearance is associated with individual workers’ accumulation of human capital or skills. If the human capital of attractive workers is at least partly an outcome of favoritism toward beauty, then the premium estimates obtained by many previous studies may have been downwardly biased.
UK — Football Matches: the Effects on Crime
Football Matches: the Effects on Crime (PDF)
Source: Research Papers in Economics
The heavy police presence at football matches in England has reduced hooliganism in the stadium – but at what cost in terms of both policying budgets and under-protected places elsewhere in the neighbourhood? Olivier Marie examines the multiple effects of football matches on crime.
Race Effects on eBay
Race Effects on eBay
Source: Social Science Research Network
We investigate the impact of seller race in a field experiment involving baseball card auctions on eBay. Photographs showed the cards held by either a dark-skinned/African-American hand or a light-skinned/Caucasian hand. Cards held by African-American sellers sold for approximately 20% ($0.90) less than cards held by Caucasian sellers, and the race effect was more pronounced in sales of minority player cards. Our evidence of race differentials is important because the on-line environment is well controlled (with the absence of confounding tester effects) and because the results show that race effects can persist in a thick real-world market such as eBay.
Productivity, Wages and Marriage: The Case of Major League Baseball
Productivity, Wages and Marriage: The Case of Major League Baseball
Source: Research Papers in Economics
The effect of marriage on productivity and, consequently, wages has been long debated in economics. A primary explanation for the impact of marriage on wages has been through its impact on productivity, however, there has been no direct evidence for this. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by directly measuring the impact of marriage on productivity using a sample of professional baseball players from 1871 – 2007. Our results show that only lower ability men see an increase in productivity, though this result is sensitive to the empirical specification and weakly significant. In addition, despite the lack of any effect on productivity, high ability married players earn roughly 16 – 20 percent more than their single counterparts. We discuss possible reasons why employers may favor married men.
