Archive
Developing world faces domestic challenges, as global economy stabilizes
Developing world faces domestic challenges, as global economy stabilizes
Source: World Bank
The world economy appears to be getting back on its feet as risks from advanced economies ease.
Growth in the developing world will remain solid, albeit slower than the frenetic growth rates seen during the pre-crisis boom period, as developing countries grapple with home-grown challenges brought on by capacity constraints in many middle income countries, says the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects, issued today.
Global GDP is expected to expand about 2.2 percent in this year and strengthen to 3.0 percent and 3.3 percent in 2014 and 2015.
Developing-country GDP is now projected to be around 5.1 percent in 2013, strengthening to 5.6 percent and 5.7 percent in 2014 and 2015, respectively, with growth in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa projected to remain weak. Looking at broader region-wide trends, the East Asia & Pacific region is expected to grow by 7.3 percent this year; Europe & Central Asia by 2.8 percent; Latin America & the Caribbean by 3.3 percent; Middle East & North Africa by 2.5 percent; South Asia by 5.2 percent; and Sub-Saharan Africa by 4.9 percent.
For high-income countries, fiscal consolidation, high unemployment and still weak consumer and business confidence will keep growth this year to a modest 1.2 percent, firming to 2.0 percent in 2014 and 2.3 percent by 2015. Economic contraction in the Euro Area is estimated to be 0.6 percent for 2013, compared with the previous projection of 0.1 percent. Euro Area growth is expected to be a modest 0.9 percent in 2014 and 1.5 percent in 2015.
HIV in the European Region: Using Evidence to Strengthen Policy and Programmes
HIV in the European Region: Using Evidence to Strengthen Policy and Programmes
Source: World Bank
Social and structural factors – like poverty, marginalization and stigma – and not just individual behaviors are shaping the HIV epidemic in Europe and Central Asia. This is the main conclusion of a new report released today by the World Bank Group, the World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
The study systematically reviews evidence on HIV vulnerability and response in all 53 countries of the WHO European Region, stretching from Iceland to the borders of China.
The report focuses on key populations most at risk of HIV infection: people who inject drugs, sex workers and men who have sex with men. It confirms that they are disproportionately affected by the growing HIV epidemic in Europe, where the number of reported HIV cases reached more than 1.5 million in 2011.
HIV cases in these three groups account for approximately 50% of total diagnoses. Economic volatility and recession risks are increasing vulnerability to HIV and infections.
Transforming Arab Economies: Towards Knowledge and Innovation-Driven Development Strategies
Transforming Arab Economies: Towards Knowledge and Innovation-Driven Development Strategies
Source: World Bank
A new World Bank-CMI-EIB and ISESCO report titled “Transforming Arab Economies: Traveling the Knowledge and Innovation Road” shows how an economy based on innovation and knowledge can help promote greater economic growth and spur competitiveness. The report, launched today in Rabat at an event organized with the Islamic Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (ISESCO), underlines that greater investment in a knowledge-economy model will be needed to meet the job creation challenge common to the region.
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The new report suggests that the extent of change will depend in good part on how well the knowledge economy takes hold throughout the region. Creating jobs entails more investment in knowledge-related sectors and new emphasis on how to develop competitive, productive, and sustainable economies.
Global Monitoring Report 2013 : Rural-Urban Dynamics and the Millennium Development Goals
Global Monitoring Report 2013 : Rural-Urban Dynamics and the Millennium Development Goals
Source: World Bank
The Global Monitoring Report 2013: Rural-Urban Dynamics and the Millennium Development Goals examines rural-urban disparities in the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and how urbanization, if managed well, can contribute to the attainment of these goals. The report provides information about the differences in progress toward the MDGs across geographical areas and recognizes that urban populations are better off than their rural brethren. However, unfettered urbanization can cause migrants and the urban poor to end up in slums where attainment of the MDGs lags. GMR 2013 calls for an integrated strategy to better manage the planning-connecting-financing formula of urbanization. Notwithstanding the importance of urbanization in poverty reduction and MDG attainment, rural areas remain a huge challenge—one that underscores the importance of policies that can improve rural livelihoods. The rural-urban spectrum ranges from small towns to large cities. The general experience is that poverty is lowest in the largest cities and considerably higher in smaller towns. The MDGs reflect the basic needs of all citizens, and governments should aim to meet them fully in both urban and rural areas. However, resources are scarce, so priorities must be set and trade-offs made. The report argues that the sequencing of actions be tailored to local conditions when it comes to the degree of urbanization and rural-urban differences in MDG outcomes. The world has met four global MDG targets. New estimates confirm the 2012 reports that MDG 1.a—reducing the $1.25-a-day poverty rate (2005 purchasing power parity)—was reached in 2010, falling below half of its 1990 value. The world also met part of MDG 7.c—to halve the proportion of people without safe access to drinking water—in 2010. MDG 7.d—to improve significantly the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers by 2020—was also achieved. Finally, the first part of MDG 3.a—to eliminate gender disparity in primary education— was accomplished in 2010. Global progress on the full MDG 3.a (to eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education) is close to being on track. Global Monitoring Report 2013 was prepared jointly by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, with consultations and collaborations with regional development banks and other multilateral partners.
Climate Change Report Warns of Dramatically Warmer World This Century
Climate Change Report Warns of Dramatically Warmer World This Century
Source: World Bank
Highlights:
- New World Bank-commissioned report warns the world is on track to a “4°C world” marked by extreme heat-waves and life-threatening sea level rise.
- Adverse effects of global warming are “tilted against many of the world’s poorest regions” and likely to undermine development efforts and goals.
- Bank eyes increased support for adaptation, mitigation, inclusive green growth and climate-smart development.
What City Leaders Need to Know as Countries Rapidly Urbanize
What City Leaders Need to Know as Countries Rapidly Urbanize
Source: World Bank
Today’s developed countries urbanized mostly gradually, their cities expanding over a period of 100 years or more as jobs shifted from farms to factories. The pace allowed for trial and error in growth patterns and policies. Developing countries today don’t have that luxury. They’re facing rapid migration that will tilt some populations from less than 20 percent urban today to more than 60 percent in just 30 years.
City leaders must figure out now how they will provide the affordable homes, transportation, jobs, and basic infrastructure and services necessary to support already ballooning urban populations, do so with the least impact on the environment and prepare for increasing vulnerabilities stemming from climate change.
Getting this rapidly paced urbanization right is the key to resilient and sustainable growth. The challenge goes well beyond planning – governments must find innovative ways to finance infrastructure.
A new World Bank report, Planning, Connecting and Financing-Now: What City Leaders Need to Know, provides a framework for urban growth planning and finance, backed by case studies, to help leaders identify the impediments to urbanization and find the right combinations of policy options that would work politically, technically, and fiscally for their cities and countries. It helps them think through questions such as, What must be done to create jobs and expand basic services? What must be done to improve living conditions in slums and hazard-prone areas? What must be done to manage the city’s physical form?
IC4D 2012: Maximizing Mobile
Source: World Bank
This report analyzes the growth and evolution of applications for mobile phones, focusing on their use in agriculture, health and financial services, as well as their impact on employment and government. It also explores the consequences for development of the emerging “app economy”, summarizing current thinking and seeking to inform the debate on the use of mobile phones for development. It’s no longer about the phone itself, but about how it is used, and the content and applications that mobile phones open.
Developing world prospects solid, but bumpy road ahead
Developing world prospects solid, but bumpy road ahead
Source: World Bank
Four years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the worst appears to be over.
However, the global economy remains fragile, as high-income countries continue to suffer from volatility and slow growth, says the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects, issued today.
Despite slow growth in high-income countries, prospects for the developing world remain solid (albeit between 1 and 2 percentage points slower than in the pre-crisis period). In order to regain those earlier faster growth rates, developing countries will need to focus on productivity-enhancing domestic policies, to assure robust growth in the long term.
The World Bank estimates global GDP grew 2.3 percent in 2012. Growth is expected to remain broadly unchanged at 2.4 percent growth in 2013, before gradually strengthening to 3.1 percent in 2014 and 3.3 percent in 2015.
Developing countries recorded among their slowest economic growth rates of the past decade in 2012, with GDP estimated to have grown 5.1 percent. Growth for developing countries is projected to expand by 5.5 percent in 2013, strengthening to 5.7 percent and 5.8 percent in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
Growth in high-income countries remains weak, with their GDP expanding only 1.3 percent in 2012 and expected to remain slow at an identical 1.3 percent in 2013. Growth should gradually firm to 2 percent in 2014 and 2.3 percent by 2015. In the Euro Area, growth is now projected to only return to positive territory in 2014, with GDP expected to contract by 0.1 percent in 2013, before edging up to 0.9 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015.
Global trade of goods and services, which grew only 3.5 percent in 2012, is expected to accelerate, expanding by 6 percent in 2013 and 7 percent by 2015.
The Transformational Use of Information and Communication Technologies in Africa
The Transformational Use of Information and Communication Technologies in Africa
Source: World Bank
This new flagship report – eTransform Africa – produced by the World Bank and the African Development Bank, with the support of the African Union, identifies best practice in the use of ICTs in key sectors of the African economy.
Under the theme "Transformation-Ready", the growing contribution of ICTs to Agriculture, Climate Change Adaptation, Education, Financial Services, Government Services and Health is explored. In addition, the report highlights the role of ICTs in enhancing African regional trade and integration as well as the need to build a competitive ICT industry to boost innovation, job creation and the export potential of African companies.
More relatively-poor people in a less absolutely-poor world
More relatively-poor people in a less absolutely-poor world
Source: World Bank
Relative deprivation, shame and social exclusion can matter to the welfare of people everywhere. The authors argue that such social effects on welfare call for a reconsideration of how we assess global poverty, but they do not support standard measures of relative poverty. The paper argues instead for using a weakly-relative measure as the upper-bound complement to the lower-bound provided by a standard absolute measure. New estimates of global poverty are presented, drawing on 850 household surveys spanning 125 countries over 1981-2008. The absolute line is $1.25 a day at 2005 prices, while the relative line rises with the mean, at a gradient of 1:2 above $1.25 a day. The authors show that these parameter choices are consistent with cross-country data on national poverty lines. The results indicate that the incidence of both absolute and weakly-relative poverty in the developing world has been falling since the 1990s, but more slowly for the relative measure. While the number of absolutely poor has fallen, the number of relatively poor has changed little since the 1990s, and is higher in 2008 than 1981.
World Bank’s Country Strategy for India (2013-16)
World Bank’s Country Strategy for India (2013-16)
Source: World Bank
The World Bank is holding a series of consultations to seek inputs on its proposed Country Program Strategy (CPS) for India for 2013-2016. The CPS is the Bank’s roadmap for engagement in the country over the next four years. Oriented toward results, the CPS aims to support India’s development agenda of faster, sustainable and more inclusive growth as outlined in the government’s upcoming 12th Five Year Plan.
The CPS identifies key areas where the World Bank’s assistance can have the greatest impact on poverty reduction. This, in turn, determines the level and composition of the World Bank Group’s financial, advisory, and technical support to the country over a four-year period.
The CPS is developed in consultation with country authorities, civil society organizations, development partners, the media, the private sector, and other stakeholders. Consultations provide a platform for the World Bank Group to tap into the experience and knowledge of a broad range of stakeholders, and listen to their ideas about how the Bank can work with them to help the country meet its development challenges. Discussions not only cover the country’s long-standing development agenda but also the new challenges thrown up by unprecedented economic growth, and the recent slowdown.
WB Urges Developing Countries to Strengthen Domestic Fundamentals, to Weather Global Economic Turmoil
WB Urges Developing Countries to Strengthen Domestic Fundamentals, to Weather Global Economic Turmoil
Source: World Bank
Developing countries should prepare for a long period of volatility in the global economy by re-emphasizing medium-term development strategies, while preparing for tougher times, says the World Bank in the newly-released Global Economic Prospects (GEP), June 2012.
A resurgence of tensions in high-income Europe has eroded the gains made during the first four months of this year, which saw a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries and an easing of risk aversion among investors. Since May 1st, increased market jitters have spread. Developing and high-income country stock markets have lost some 7 percent, giving up two-thirds of the gains generated over the preceding four months. Most industrial commodity prices are down, with crude and copper prices down by 19 and 14 percent, respectively, while developing country currencies have lost value against the US dollar, as international capital fled to safe-haven assets, such as German and U.S. government bonds.
So far, conditions in most developing countries have not deteriorated as much as in the fourth quarter of 2011. Outside of Europe and Central Asia and the Middle-East and North Africa, developing country credit default swap (CDS) rates, a key indicator of market sentiment, remain well below their maximums from the fall of 2011.
Sustainable low-carbon city development in China
Cities contribute an estimated 70 percent of the world’s energy-related greenhouse gases (GHG). Their locations, often in low-elevation coastal zones, and large populations make them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. But cities often take steps, even ahead of national governments, to reduce GHG emissions. So it is with China’s cities, which are well placed to chart a low-carbon growth path to help reach China’s national targets for reducing the energy and carbon intensity of its economy. China’s cities will need to act on multiple fronts, in some cases scaling up elements of existing good practice, in others changing established ways of doing business. Actions affecting land-use and spatial development are among the most critical to achieving low-carbon growth as carbon emissions are closely connected to urban form. Spatial development also has very strong ‘lock-in’ effects: once cities grow and define their urban form, it is almost impossible to retrofit them because the built environment is largely irreversible and very costly to modify. Furthermore, cities need energy-efficient buildings and industries. They need a transport system that offers alternatives to automobiles. They need to shift to efficient management of water, wastewater, and solid waste. And they need to incorporate responses to climate change in their planning, investment decisions, and emergency-preparedness plans.
+ Full Document (PDF)
Measuring financial inclusion : the Global Findex Database
Measuring financial inclusion : the Global Findex Database
This paper provides the first analysis of the Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) Database, a new set of indicators that measure how adults in 148 economies save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. The data show that 50 percent of adults worldwide have an account at a formal financial institution, though account penetration varies widely across regions, income groups and individual characteristics. In addition, 22 percent of adults report having saved at a formal financial institution in the past 12 months, and 9 percent report having taken out a new loan from a bank, credit union or microfinance institution in the past year. Although half of adults around the world remain unbanked, at least 35 percent of them report barriers to account use that might be addressed by public policy. Among the most commonly reported barriers are high cost, physical distance, and lack of proper documentation, though there are significant differences across regions and individual characteristics.
Food security and storage in the Middle East and North Africa
In times of highly volatile commodity markets, governments often try to protect their populations from rapidly-rising food prices, which can be particularly harsh for the poor. A potential solution for food-deficit countries is to hold strategic reserves, which can be called on when international prices spike. But how large should strategic stockpiles be? This paper develops a dynamic storage model for wheat in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where imported wheat dominates the average diet. The paper uses the model to analyze a strategy that sets aside wheat stockpiles, which can be used when needed to keep domestic prices below a targeted price. This paper shows that if the target is set high and reserves are adequate, the strategy can be effective and robust. Contrary to most interventions, strategic storage policies are counter-cyclical and, when the importing region is sufficiently large, a regional policy can smooth global prices. This paper shows that this is the case for the MENA region. Nevertheless, the policy is more costly than the pro-cyclical policy of a targeted intervention that directly offsets high prices with a subsidy similar to food stamps.
+ Full Paper (PDF)
Financing of firms in developing countries : lessons from research
This paper reviews and synthesizes theoretical and empirical research on the role of finance in developing countries. First, the paper presents the stylized facts about firms in developing nations as well as the legal, financial and broader institutional framework in which these firms operate. Next, the paper focuses on the financing choices available to small and medium firms in developing countries and highlights areas needing additional research.
+ Full Paper (PDF)
Does a picture paint a thousand words ? evidence from a microcredit marketing experiment
Female entrepreneurship is low in many developing economies partly because of constraints on women’s time and mobility, which are often reinforced by social norms. This paper analyzes a marketing experiment designed to encourage women to adopt a new microcredit product. A brochure with the same content but two different covers was randomly distributed among male and female borrowing groups. One cover featured five businesses run by men, while the other showed identical businesses run by women. Men and women responded to psychological cues. Among men who were not business owners, had lower measured ability and whose wives were less educated, the responses to the female brochure were more negative, as did female business owners with low autonomy within the household. Women with relatively high levels of autonomy had a similar negative response to the male brochure, while there was no effect on female business owners with autonomy. Overall, these results suggest that women’s response to psychological cues, such as positive role models, may be affected by their level of autonomy at home, and more intensive interventions may be required for more disadvantaged women.
+ Full Paper (PDF)
Accounting for water quality in monitoring access to safe drinking-water as part of the Millennium Development Goals: lessons from five countries
ObjectiveTo determine how data on water source quality affect assessments of progress towards the 2015 Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target on access to safe drinking-water.MethodsData from five countries on whether drinking-water sources complied with World Health Organization water quality guidelines on contamination with thermotolerant coliform bacteria, arsenic, fluoride and nitrates in 2004 and 2005 were obtained from the Rapid Assessment of Drinking-Water Quality project. These data were used to adjust estimates of the proportion of the population with access to safe drinking-water at the MDG baseline in 1990 and in 2008 made by the Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation, which classified all improved sources as safe.FindingsTaking account of data on water source quality resulted in substantially lower estimates of the percentage of the population with access to safe drinking-water in 2008 in four of the five study countries: the absolute reduction was 11% in Ethiopia, 16% in Nicaragua, 15% in Nigeria and 7% in Tajikistan. There was only a slight reduction in Jordan. Microbial contamination was more common than chemical contamination.ConclusionThe criterion used by the MDG indicator to determine whether a water source is safe can lead to substantial overestimates of the population with access to safe drinking-water and, consequently, also overestimates the progress made towards the 2015 MDG target. Monitoring drinking-water supplies by recording both access to water sources and their safety would be a substantial improvement.
China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society
China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society
Source: World Bank
China should complete its transition to a market economy — through enterprise, land, labor, and financial sector reforms — strengthen its private sector, open its markets to greater competition and innovation, and ensure equality of opportunity to help achieve its goal of a new structure for economic growth.
These are some of the key findings of a joint research report by a team from the World Bank and the Development Research Center of China’s State Council, which lays out the case for a new development strategy for China to rebalance the role of government and market, private sector and society, to reach the goal of a high income country by 2030.
The report, “China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society”, recommends steps to deal with the risks facing China over the next 20 years, including the risk of a hard landing in the short term, as well as challenges posed by an ageing and shrinking workforce, rising inequality, environmental stresses, and external imbalances.
Removing Barriers to Trade in Africa
Key Findings+ The African market remains highly fragmented; preventing enormous opportunities for cross-border trade from being exploited and in turn generating new jobs.+ Effective regional integration is more than simply removing tariffs—it is about addressing the barriers that undermine the daily operations of ordinary producers and traders of both goods and services.+ The incidence of barriers to regional trade fall most heavily, and disproportionately, on the poor and on women, and is preventing them from earning a living in activities where they have a comparative advantage—catering for smaller, local markets across the border.+ Action is required at both the supra-national and national levels. Regional communities can provide the framework for reform but responsibility for implementation lies with each member country.+ The donor community can help countries understand the political economy resistance that lies behind the fact that despite public pledges for integration, actual barriers to trade remain in place.
