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The Air War versus The Ground Game: An Analysis of Multi-Channel Marketing in US Presidential Elections

January 30, 2015 Comments off

The Air War versus The Ground Game: An Analysis of Multi-Channel Marketing in US Presidential Elections
Source: Harvard Business School Working Papers

Firms increasingly use both mass-media advertising and targeted personal selling to successfully promote products and brands in the marketplace. In this study, we jointly examine the effect of mass-media advertising and personal selling in the context of U.S. presidential elections, where the former is referred to as the “air war” and the latter the “ground game.” Specifically, we look at how different types of advertising―candidates’ own ads vs. outside ads―and personal selling―in the form of utilizing field offices―affect voter preferences. Further, we ask how these various campaign activities affect the outcome of elections through their diverse effects on various types of people. We find that personal selling has a stronger effect among partisan voters, while candidates’ own advertising is better received by non-partisans. We also find that personal selling accounted for the Democratic victories in the 2008 and 2012 elections and that advertising was critical only in a close election, such as the one in 2004. Interestingly, had the Democrats received more outside advertising in 2004, the election would have ended up in a 269-269 tie. Our findings generate insights on how to allocate resources across and within channels.

TMT Predictions 2015: The future in Technology, Media & Telecommunications

January 28, 2015 Comments off

TMT Predictions 2015: The future in Technology, Media & Telecommunications
Source: Deloitte

Technology – TMT Predictions 2015

  • The Internet of Things really is things, not people
  • Drones: high-profile and niche
  • 3D printing is a revolution: just not the revolution you think
  • Click and collect booms in Europe
  • Smartphone batteries: better but no breakthrough
  • Nanosats take off, but they don’t take over
  • The re-enterprization of IT

Media – TMT Predictions 2015

  • Short form video: a future, but not the future, of television
  • The ‘generation that won’t spend’ is spending a lot on media content
  • Print is alive and well–at least for books

Telecommunications – TMT Predictions 2015

  • One billion smartphone upgrades
  • The connectivity chasms deepen: the growing gap in broadband speeds
  • Contactless mobile payments (finally) gain momentum

An overview of Europe’s film industry

January 26, 2015 Comments off

An overview of Europe’s film industry
Source: European Parliamentary Research Service

In spite of the fact that Europe pioneered both technological and content innovation in cinema, at present the EU film landscape is characterised by the strong presence of Hollywood productions. In 2013, they held a share of nearly 70% of the EU market, while European productions represented only 26%. What makes the major US companies so powerful is the fact that they are vertically integrated, with activities spanning production and distribution, allowing them to spread risks over several films, and reinvest profits in new projects. To offset the financing challenges facing EU film companies, different types of film-support schemes have been set up, accounting in 2009 for an estimated €2.1 billion (excluding tax incentives and interventions by publicly funded banks and credit institutions).

Notwithstanding the ever-increasing presence of Hollywood majors, the European film industry is quite dynamic and encompasses over 75 000 companies, employing more than 370 000 people, and reaping some €60 billion in revenue in 2010. Within the EU, the ‘Big Five’ – France, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and Spain – account for around 80% of releases, industry turnover, and persons employed.

The creative wealth of nations : how the performing arts can advance development and human progress

January 23, 2015 Comments off

The creative wealth of nations : how the performing arts can advance development and human progress (PDF)
Source: World Bank

Cultural activities are increasingly noted as drivers of meaningful development. But they have yet to gain a prominent place in the architecture of development strategy. The performing arts, discussed here, exhibit direct effects on social progress and economic growth through trade in music, movies, and temporary work permits for artists, for example. Indirect contributions may also include environmental stewardship, tourism, nation branding, social inclusion, cultural democracy, and shifting cultural behaviors. These direct and indirect contributions are not well documented. As such, how is the creative or cultural sector a crucial part of the wealth of nations, and how could the World Bank Group better leverage the performing arts in its development strategy? This discussion provides a broad snapshot, from arts education, to social inclusion, to international trade in services. Key constraints include: the paucity of data and the difficulty of measuring cultural activities, the challenge of intellectual property, and the unclear benefits of cultural tourism. Part I sets the stage. Part II then provides policy options to foster the performing arts as a promising engine for development. Suggestions include: 1. expanding direct involvement in artistic projects, 2. increa sing the use of performing arts to address social issues, 3. collecting data, 4. promoting intellectual property training programs, 5. supporting digital platforms in the developing world that advance indigenous music, and 6. funding studies on such areas as cultural tourism. Progress still needs to be made in the discussion of the diverse ways that the performing arts can contribute to meaningful development.

CIA — Studies in Intelligence Volume 58, Number 4 (December 2014)

January 23, 2015 Comments off

Studies in Intelligence Volume 58, Number 4 (December 2014)
Source: Central Intelligence Agency

In Memoriam: Jack Downey [PDF 94.2KB**]
Ambassador Donald Gregg

Inside the Inferno
*Counterterrorism Professionals Reflect on Their Work [PDF 311.1KB**]
Dr. Ursula M. Wilder

By the Numbers
*The IC’s Struggle to Express Analytic Uncertainty in the 1970s [PDF 306.0KB**]
James Marchio

GIMIK and SKIFF
*A Tale of Two Semi-Submersible Submarines [PDF 469.9KB**]
Jim Anderson, LCDR USNR (ret), and Dirk A.D. Smith

INTELLIGENCE IN PUBLIC LITERATURE AND FILM
A Most Wanted Man: the Movie [PDF 75.2KB**]
Reviewed by James Burridge and John Kavanagh

A Cruel and Shocking Act: The Secret History of the Kennedy Assassination [PDF 77.7KB**]
Reviewed by Thomas G. Coffey

Russian Roulette: How British Spies Thwarted Lenin’s Plot for Global Revolution [PDF 118.6KB**]
Reviewed by J.R. Seeger

Mission R&AW [PDF 76.3KB**]
Reviewed by Ryan Shaffer, Ph.D.

Intelligence Officer’s Bookshelf [PDF 152.6KB**]
Compiled and reviewed by Hayden Peake

*Books Reviewed in Studies in Intelligence in 2014 [PDF 86.5KB**]

Intellectual Property and Trust in the Age of Digital Media

January 22, 2015 Comments off

Intellectual Property and Trust in the Age of Digital Media
Source: Edelman

The 2015 Edelman Trust Barometer reveals a new formula for building trust, one in which engagement carries a multiplier effect. Engagement and ongoing communication and dialogue with multiple stakeholders are both more critical than ever, but also more difficult to execute well. Today’s reality is that CEOs are not trusted to be credible spokespersons for their organization (only 43 percent believe CEOs have credibility) and more people now look for business information on search engines (31 percent) than television (22 percent) or newspapers (21 percent). Businesses and other institutions need a new strategy for starting and influencing conversations about their organization or industry, one in which the creation and stewardship of intellectual property plays a key role.

Today’s media landscape is vastly different compared to 15 years ago, when the Trust Barometer was first fielded. For the first time in 2015, search engines are now the most trusted source for general news and information among the informed public, surpassing traditional media by two percentage points among the global informed public, and by eight percentage points among Millennials. Social media has risen to a trust level of 48 percent (59 percent among Millennials). Today, it’s all about starting peer-to-peer conversations and making sure that your content is easy to find.

Digital piracy: an update

January 22, 2015 Comments off

Digital piracy: an update (PDF)
Source: Université catholique de Louvain (Center for Operations Research and Econometrics)

The objective of this note is to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of digital piracy. Although we put the emphasis on the economic analysis, we also briefly present the legal context and its recent evolution. As digital piracy consists in infringing intellectual property laws, it is important to start by understanding the rationale of such laws. That allows us to define more precisely what is meant by digital piracy. We can then move to the economic analysis of piracy. We start with the basic analysis, which explains why piracy is likely to decrease the profits of the producers of digital products; we also examine how the producers have reacted to digital piracy when it started to grow. We review next more recent contributions that point at possible channels through which piracy could improve the profitability of digital products. These channels have inspired new business models for the distribution of digital products, which we describe in the last part of the essay. Throughout the essay, we report the results of some of the most recent empirical studies, so as to quantify the impacts of digital piracy.

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