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Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic — Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015

October 24, 2014 Comments off

Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic — Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015
Source: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (CDC)

The first cases of the current West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (hereafter referred to as Ebola) were reported on March 22, 2014, with a report of 49 cases in Guinea. By August 31, 2014, a total of 3,685 probable, confirmed, and suspected cases in West Africa had been reported. To aid in planning for additional disease-control efforts, CDC constructed a modeling tool called EbolaResponse to provide estimates of the potential number of future cases. If trends continue without scale-up of effective interventions, by September 30, 2014, Sierra Leone and Liberia will have a total of approximately 8,000 Ebola cases. A potential underreporting correction factor of 2.5 also was calculated. Using this correction factor, the model estimates that approximately 21,000 total cases will have occurred in Liberia and Sierra Leone by September 30, 2014. Reported cases in Liberia are doubling every 15–20 days, and those in Sierra Leone are doubling every 30–40 days. The EbolaResponse modeling tool also was used to estimate how control and prevention interventions can slow and eventually stop the epidemic. In a hypothetical scenario, the epidemic begins to decrease and eventually end if approximately 70% of persons with Ebola are in medical care facilities or Ebola treatment units (ETUs) or, when these settings are at capacity, in a non-ETU setting such that there is a reduced risk for disease transmission (including safe burial when needed). In another hypothetical scenario, every 30-day delay in increasing the percentage of patients in ETUs to 70% was associated with an approximate tripling in the number of daily cases that occur at the peak of the epidemic (however, the epidemic still eventually ends). Officials have developed a plan to rapidly increase ETU capacities and also are developing innovative methods that can be quickly scaled up to isolate patients in non-ETU settings in a way that can help disrupt Ebola transmission in communities. The U.S. government and international organizations recently announced commitments to support these measures. As these measures are rapidly implemented and sustained, the higher projections presented in this report become very unlikely.

See also:
Importation and Containment of Ebola Virus Disease — Senegal, August–September 2014
Control of Ebola Virus Disease — Firestone District, Liberia, 2014
Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak — Nigeria, July–September 2014
Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak — West Africa, September 2014
Frequently Asked Questions About “Alternative” Therapies for Ebola (NCCAM)

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Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections

October 24, 2014 Comments off

Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections
Source: New England Journal of Medicine

As of September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 confirmed and probable cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD), as well as 2296 deaths from the virus, had been reported from five countries in West Africa — Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. In terms of reported morbidity and mortality, the current epidemic of EVD is far larger than all previous epidemics combined. The true numbers of cases and deaths are certainly higher. There are numerous reports of symptomatic persons evading diagnosis and treatment, of laboratory diagnoses that have not been included in national databases, and of persons with suspected EVD who were buried without a diagnosis having been made

The economic impact of the 2014 Ebola epidemic : short and medium term estimates for West Africa

October 9, 2014 Comments off

The economic impact of the 2014 Ebola epidemic : short and medium term estimates for West Africa
Source: World Bank

The 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus disease in West Africa has taken a devastating human toll. Although the outbreak originated in rural Guinea, it has hit hardest in Liberia and Sierra Leone, in part because it has reached urban areas in these two countries, a factor that distinguishes this outbreak from previous episodes elsewhere. As of October 3, 2014, there had been 3,431 recorded deaths out of 7,470 probable, suspected, or confirmed cases of Ebola. This report informs the response to the epidemic by presenting best-effort estimates of its macroeconomic and fiscal effects. Any such exercise is necessarily highly imprecise due to limited data and many uncertain factors, but it is still necessary in order to plan the economic assistance that must accompany the immediate humanitarian response. The goal is to help affected countries to recover and return to the robust economic growth they had experienced until the onset of this crisis. This document presents the World Bank’s preliminary estimates of the economic impact of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa for 2014 (short term impact) and 2015 (medium term impact). Section 2 presents a single set of 2014 estimates for Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, based on available data on current economic activity as well as assumptions about the short-term impact. It also presents current data on the limited current impacts on other countries in the region.

CDC Digital Press Kit: Ebola Outbreak – 2014

August 27, 2014 Comments off

CDC Digital Press Kit: Ebola Outbreak – 2014
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

CDC is rapidly increasing its ongoing efforts to curb the expanding West African Ebola outbreak and deploying staff to four African nations currently affected: Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Nigeria.

This is the largest Ebola outbreak in history and the first in West Africa. The outbreak in West Africa is worsening, but CDC, along with other U.S. government agencies and international partners, is taking active steps to respond to this rapidly changing situation.

CDC elevated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC) to a Level 1 activation, its highest level, because of the significance of the outbreak in West Africa.
CDC is surging our response with the current challenges that we are facing. CDC is sending additional CDC disease control specialists into the four countries.

CDC — Outbreak of Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone

July 31, 2014 Comments off

Outbreak of Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Highlights

  • July 23, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health announced a total of 427 suspect and confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD), including 319 fatal cases.
  • Affected districts include Conakry, Guéckédou, Macenta, Kissidougou, Dabola, Djingaraye, Télimélé, Boffa, Kouroussa, Dubreka, Fria, and Siguiri; several are no longer active areas of EVD transmission (see map).
  • 311 cases across Guinea have been confirmed by laboratory testing to be positive for Ebola virus infection.
  • In Guinea’s capital city, Conakry, 73 suspect cases have been reported to meet the clinical definition for EVD, including 37 fatal cases.
  • July 23, 2014, the Ministry of Health and Sanitation of Sierra Leone and WHO reported a cumulative total of 525 suspect and confirmed cases, including 419 laboratory confirmations and 224 reported fatal cases.
  • Cases have been reported from 6 Sierra Leone districts: Kailahun, Kambia, Port Loko, Kenema, Bo, and Western.
  • July 23, 2014, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare of Liberia and WHO have reported 249 suspect and confirmed EHF cases (including 84 laboratory confirmations) and 129 reported fatalities.
  • Genetic analysis of the virus indicates that it is closely related (97% identical) to variants of Ebola virus (species Zaire ebolavirus) identified earlier in the Democratic
  • Republic of the Congo and Gabon (Baize et al. 2014External Web Site Icon).
  • The Guinean Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Health and Sanitation of Sierra Leone, and the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare of Liberia are working with national and international partners to investigate and respond to the outbreak.

Education and Displacement: Assessing Conditions for Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons Affected by Conflict

April 3, 2011 Comments off

Education and Displacement: Assessing Conditions for Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons Affected by Conflict
Source: Brookings Instituion

Conflicts force people to leave their homes. Indeed, one of the measures of the severity of a conflict – in addition to casualties and duration – is the extent to which people have been displaced from their communities. In a recent survey by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) of 8 conflict-affected countries, 56 percent of people affected by conflict had been displaced and in some conflicts the percentages were far higher, nearly 80 percent in Afghanistan and nearly 90 percent in Liberia. In fact when people living in countries with conflict were asked about their greatest fears, fear of displacement was among their top three concerns – after losing a loved one and economic hardship – but above death, physical injury and sexual and gender-based violence.

+ Full Report (PDF)

Liberia: Country Specific Information

March 6, 2011 Comments off

Liberia: Country Specific Information
Source: U.S. Department of State

Liberia is a country in West Africa that suffered from years of instability and conflict from 1990-2003, with attendant destruction of buildings, roads, infrastructure, and public institutions. A comprehensive peace accord ended the conflict in August 2003 and a United Nations peacekeeping force (UNMIL) was deployed to facilitate disarmament and demobilization, help arrange democratic elections, and provide for security of the country. In late 2005, Liberians went to the polls and elected Ellen Johnson Sirleaf as president. The new government was inaugurated in January 2006, and has made progress towards restoring security and stability to the country. Elections are currently scheduled for October-November 2011.

Despite seven years of peace and a renewal of economic growth, Liberia is still one of the poorest countries in the world and many basic services (e.g., public power, water and sewage, landline phones) are either limited or unavailable. Facilities for foreign visitors are adequate in the capital, Monrovia, but virtually non-existent in the rest of the country. The official language of Liberia is English.

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