Archive
Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy’s Risk-Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States
Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy’s Risk-Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States
Source: International Monetary Fund
We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on the internal ratings of U.S. banks on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from the Federal Reserve’s survey of terms of business lending. We find that ex-ante risk taking by banks (as measured by the risk rating of the bank’s loan portfolio) is negatively associated with increases in short-term policy interest rates. This relationship is less pronounced for banks with relatively low capital or during periods when banks’ capital erodes, such as episodes of financial and economic distress. These results contribute to the ongoing debate on the role of monetary policy in financial stability and suggest that monetary policy has a bearing on the riskiness of banks and financial stability more generally.
Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere Latin America and the Caribbean
Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere Latin America and the Caribbean
Source: International Monetary Fund
Growth in Latin America is set to pick up to about 3½ percent in 2013, broadly in line with potential. The region continues to benefit from favorable external financing conditions and relatively high commodity prices, but these tailwinds are unlikely to last forever. The key challenges for policymakers today are preserving macroeconomic and financial stability, and building strong foundations for sustained growth in the future. More prudent fiscal policy would help ease pressure on capacity constraints, mitigate the widening of current account deficits, and prepare the economies better to deal with adverse external shocks. Exchange rate flexibility and prudential measures should continue to be used to discourage speculative capital flows. Sustaining strong output growth will require structural reforms to raise productivity growth.
Targets, Interest Rates, and Household Saving in Urban China
Targets, Interest Rates, and Household Saving in Urban China
Source: International Monetary Fund
This paper studies a panel of China’s provinces over the period 1996-2009 during which urban household saving rates increased from 19 percent of disposable income to 30 percent. It finds that the increase in urban saving rates is negatively associated with the decline in real interest rates over this period. This negative association suggests that Chinese households save with a target level of saving in mind. When the return to saving declines (increases), it becomes more difficult (easier) to meet a target and households increase (lower) their saving out of current disposable income to compensate. The results are robust across specifications and to the inclusion of additional variables. A main policy implication is that an increase in real deposit rates may help lower household saving and boost domestic consumption.
Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific
Source: International Monetary Fund
Growth in the Asia-Pacific region shows signs of improving as extreme risks emanating from advanced economies have receded and domestic demand remains resilient, supported by relatively easy financial conditions and robust labor markets. A small and gradual pick-up in growth to over 5¾ percent is projected in the course of 2013. Risks to the outlook from within the region, such as rising financial imbalances and asset prices in some economies, are coming clearer into focus. Although Asia’s banking and corporate sectors have solid buffers, monetary policymakers should stand ready to respond early and decisively to shifting risks, and macroprudential measures will also have a role to play. In many Asian economies, some fiscal consolidation could also rebuild the space needed to respond to future shocks and preempt potential overheating pressures from capital inflows. In particular, there is a growing need to make tax and spending policies more efficient. To sustain high growth rates and alleviate the “middle-income trap” across Emerging Asia, the policy agenda will vary by jurisdiction but will also often include strengthening infrastructure investment and reforming goods and labor markets.
Global Financial Stability Report: Old Risks, New Challenges
Global Financial Stability Report: Old Risks, New Challenges
Source: International Monetary Fund
The April 2013: The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. The April 2013 report analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets and unwind public and private debt overhangs. Chapter 1 also examines short- and medium-term stability risks in the euro area and the vulnerability of emerging market economies to persistent capital inflows. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 reports on unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Jobs and Growth – Analytical and Operational Considerations for the Fund
Jobs and Growth – Analytical and Operational Considerations for the Fund
Source: International Monetary Fund
Job creation and growth with inclusion are imperatives that resonate today in every country. While some advanced countries face the challenge of supporting aggregate demand with limited fiscal space in the aftermath of the Great Recession, many countries have to address ways to generate growth and create jobs in the face of the strong ongoing global megatrends of technological change, globalization, and significant shifts in demographic trends. The latter includes rapid population aging in some parts of the world, and the entry of a large number of new workers into the labor force in others. Low female labor force participation represents a significant missed opportunity to strengthen economic development and growth in many countries.
Dealing with Private Debt Distress in the Wake of the European Financial Crisis A Review of the Economics and Legal Toolbox
Source: International Monetary Fund
The private non-financial sector in Europe is facing increased challenges in meeting its debt servicing obligation. In response, governments are revisiting legal tools and—in some cases—institutional arrangements to deal with over-indebtedness. For households, where the problem in some countries is large but no established best practice exists, reforms have generally sought to allow debtors a fresh start while minimizing moral hazard and preserving bank solvency and credit discipline. For the corporate sector, efforts have focused on facilitating debt restructuring (including through out of court mechanisms). Direct government intervention has been rare.
CRS — IMF Reforms: Issues for Congress
IMF Reforms: Issues for Congress (PDF)
Source: Congressional Research Service (via Federation of American Scientists)
In December 2010, the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF, the Fund), the institution’s highest governing body, agreed to a reform package that addresses two major concerns about the institution: (1) that the size of the IMF’s resources has not kept pace with increased economic activity in the global economy; and (2) that the representation of emerging and developing economies at the IMF does not reflect their growing importance in the global economy. Key parts of the reform package cannot go into effect until a number of IMF countries formally approve the reforms. If enacted, these reforms would increase the size of the IMF’s core source of funding (IMF “quota”), and increase the representation of emerging market and developing countries at the IMF to reflect more accurately their weight in the global economy.
Implementing the Reform Package, and the Role of Congress
IMF rules do not require formal approval of the reform package by all IMF member countries, but the support of the United States, as the largest shareholder at the institution, is necessary. Although many other IMF member countries have submitted their formal approvals for these reforms, to date, the United States has not formally approved these reforms. Under U.S. law, the Administration cannot do so without specific congressional authorization. Appropriations could also be necessary. Although some speculated that the Administration would submit a request to Congress for authorizing the reforms in 2012, no request was made. Some speculate that the request could come in 2013 and could be considered in the 113th Congress.
Implications of the Reform Package
Arguments for Reforms:
Proponents argue that the reform package is necessary for maintaining the effectiveness and legitimacy of the IMF as the central institution for international macroeconomic stability. The IMF’s core source of funding needs to be increased, they argue, in order to give the IMF the resources that it needs to respond effectively to financial crises. They also argue that the under-representation of emerging economies at the IMF is broadly perceived as unfair and reduces the support of several member countries for IMF programs and initiatives.
Arguments against Reforms:
Opponents argue that since the IMF has found other ways to supplement its resources during economic crises, the IMF’s core funding source does not need to be increased. Opponents are also skeptical that emerging economies support the existing norms and values of international financial institutions, and that these countries may prefer financial and trade strategies that are less aligned with those of the United States.
Potential Impact on the United States:
Implementing the reforms would not increase total U.S. financial commitments to the IMF and would have little impact on U.S. representation at the IMF. The reforms would require transferring some U.S. financial commitments from a supplementary fund at the IMF (the “New Arrangements to Borrow,” or NAB) to the IMF’s core source of funding (quota). This transfer could require appropriations, depending on how the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scores the transfer of funds. The share of U.S. voting power at the IMF would fall slightly, but the United States would still maintain its unique veto power over major policy decisions.
India: Financial System Stability Assessment Update
India: Financial System Stability Assessment Update (PDF)
Source: International Monetary Fund
This report summarizes the findings of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) for India. The assessment was undertaken in June and October 2011. The findings were further discussed with the authorities during the Article IV consultation mission in January 2012.
The key macro-relevant findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) are as follows:
- India has made remarkable progress toward developing a stable financial system but confronts a build-up of financial sector vulnerabilities. The system is becoming more complex, with interlinkages across institutions and borders. The main near-term risks to the financial system are a worsening of bank asset quality and renewed pressures on systemic liquidity. However, stress tests did not reveal near-term stability concerns, suggesting the banking system would be resilient to a range of adverse shocks.
- The prominent role of the state in the financial sector contributes to a build-up of fiscal contingent liabilities and creates a risk of capital misallocation that may constrain economic growth. Gradually reducing mandatory holdings of government securities by financial institutions, and allowing greater access to private (domestic and foreign) sources of capital, would provide more room for the financial sector to intermediate funds toward productive economic activities, thereby improving prospects for sustained growth.
- The regulatory and supervisory regime for banks, insurance, and securities markets is well developed and largely in compliance with international standards. Areas for improvement include greater de jure independence of regulatory agencies; consolidated supervision of financial conglomerates; reductions in the large exposures and related-party lending limits in banks; stronger valuation and solvency requirements in insurance; and the monitoring of corporations’ compliance with reporting, auditing, and accounting requirements for issuers.
- Further steps are needed to promote deeper fixed income markets, including a prudent reduction in banks’ minimum statutory holdings of government bonds in line with evolving international liquidity requirements, which would support liquidity in secondary markets and the development of a yield curve; and upgrading the corporate insolvency framework. Use of capital markets to refinance infrastructure loans would help alleviate pressures on banks.
Recent Improvements to the Government Finance Statistics Yearbook Database in Response to Analytical Needs
Source: International Monetary Fund
The demand for high quality detailed public finance statistics covering a globally representative sample of countries has increased dramatically during the recent financial crisis. Due to the complexity of public finance statistics, however, such data tend to be either available in oversimplified high level aggregates and lacking in methodological transparency, or, available with a great level of detail and a unified methodological approach yet overly complicated to understand. The IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Yearbook (GFSY) with data over an almost 40 year period for almost 140 countries is a valuable database but with a complex structure requiring some specialty knowledge that most data users do not have. The IMF’s Statistics Department embarked on several initiatives to improve its accessibility. The purpose of this paper is to provide a non-technical overview of the methodology and advantages of the GFSY database and discussion of how the database is improving to better meet the needs of the user community.
Income Mobility and Welfare
Source: International Monetary Fund
This paper develops a framework for the quantitative analysis of individual income dynamics, mobility and welfare. Individual income is assumed to follow a stochastic process with two (unobserved) components, an i.i.d. component representing measurement error or transitory income shocks and an AR(1) component representing persistent changes in income. We use a tractable consumption-saving model with labor income risk and incomplete markets to relate income dynamics to consumption and welfare, and derive analytical expressions for income mobility and welfare as a function of the various parameters of the underlying income process. The empirical application of our framework using data on individual incomes from Mexico provides striking results. Much of measured income mobility is driven by measurement error or transitory income shocks and therefore (almost) welfare-neutral. A smaller part of measured income mobility is due to either welfare-reducing income risk or welfare-enhancing catching-up of low-income individuals with high-income individuals, both of which have economically significant effects on social welfare. Decomposing mobility into its fundamental components is thus seen to be crucial from the standpoint of welfare evaluation.
World Economic Outlook Update: Gradual Upturn in Global Growth During 2013
World Economic Outlook Update: Gradual Upturn in Global Growth During 2013
Source: International Monetary Fund
Global growth is projected to increase during 2013, as the factors underlying soft global activity are expected to subside. However, this upturn is projected to be more gradual than in the October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections. Policy actions have lowered acute crisis risks in the euro area and the United States. But in the euro area, the return to recovery after a protracted contraction is delayed. While Japan has slid into recession, stimulus is expected to boost growth in the near term. At the same time, policies have supported a modest growth pickup in some emerging market economies, although others continue to struggle with weak external demand and domestic bottlenecks. If crisis risks do not materialize and financial conditions continue to improve, global growth could be stronger than projected. However, downside risks remain significant, including renewed setbacks in the euro area and risks of excessive near-term fiscal consolidation in the United States. Policy action must urgently address these risks.
Bond Markets in Africa
Source: International Monetary Fund
African bond markets have been steadily growing in recent years, but nonetheless remain undeveloped. African countries would benefit from greater access to financing and deeper financial markets. This paper compiles a unique set of data on corporate bond markets in Africa. It then applies an econometric model to analyze the key determinants of African government securities market and corporate bond market capitalization. Government securities market capitalization is directly related to better institutions and interest rate volatility, and inversely related to the fiscal balance, higher interest rate spreads, exchange rate volatility, and current and capital account openness. Corporate bond market capitalization is directly linked to economic size, the level of development of the economy and financial markets, better institutions, and interest rate volatility, and inversely related to higher interest rate spreads and current account openness. Policy implications follow.
CRS — IMF Reforms: Issues for Congress
IMF Reforms: Issues for Congress (PDF)
Source: Congressional Research Service (via Federation of American Scientists)
In December 2010, the International Monetary Fund (IMF, the Fund)’s Board of Governors, the institution’s highest governing body, agreed to a reform package that addresses two major concerns about the institution: (1) that the size of the IMF’s resources has not kept pace with increased economic activity in the global economy; and (2) that the representation of emerging and developing economies at the IMF does not reflect their growing importance in the global economy. Key parts of the reform package cannot go into effect until a number of IMF countries formally approve the reforms. If enacted, these reforms would increase the size of the IMF’s core source of funding (IMF “quota”), and increase the representation of emerging market and developing countries at the IMF to reflect more accurately their weight in the global economy.
Bank Debt in Europe “Are Funding Models Broken”
Bank Debt in Europe: “Are Funding Models Broken”
Source: International Monetary Fund
The crisis in Europe has underscored the vulnerability of European bank funding models compared to international peers. This paper studies the drivers behind this fragility and examines the future of bank funding, primarily wholesale, in Europe. We argue that cyclical and structural factors have altered the structure, cost, and composition of funding for European banks. The paper discusses the consequences of shifting funding patterns and investor preferences and presents possible policy options and bank actions to enhance European bank funding models’ robustness.
Income and Democracy: Lipset’s Law Revisited
Income and Democracy: Lipset’s Law Revisited
Source: International Monetary Fund
We revisit Lipset‘s law, which posits a positive and significant relationship between income and democracy. Using dynamic and heterogeneous panel data estimation techniques, we find a significant and negative relationship between income and democracy: higher/lower incomes per capita hinder/trigger democratization. Decomposing overall income per capita into its resource and non-resource components, we find that the coefficient on the latter is positive and significant while that on the former is significant but negative, indicating that the role of resource income is central to the result.
Global Financial Crisis, Financial Contagion, and Emerging Markets
Global Financial Crisis, Financial Contagion, and Emerging Markets
Source: International Monetary Fund
The recent global financial crisis was the first in recent history that was triggered by problems in the financial system of the mature economies. Existing work on financial crisis in emerging market countries, however, almost exclusively focus on the role of financial frictions in the domestic economy. In contrast, we propose a two-country DSGE model to investigate the transmission of a global financial crisis that originates from financial frictions in the rest of the world. We find that the scale of financial spillovers from the global to the domestic economy and trade openness are key determinants of the severity of the financial crisis for the domestic economy. Our results also suggest that the welfare ranking of alternative monetary policy regimes is determined by the degree of financial contagion, the degree of trade openness as well as the scale of foreign currency denominated debt in the domestic economy.
IMF Sees Heightened Risks Sapping Slower Global Recovery
IMF Sees Heightened Risks Sapping Slower Global Recovery
Source: International Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented a gloomier picture of the global economy than a few months ago, saying prospects have deteriorated further and risks increased. Overall, the IMF’s forecast for global growth was marked down to 3.3 percent this year and a still sluggish 3.6 percent in 2013.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, unveiled in Tokyo ahead of the IMF-World Bank 2012 Annual Meetings, the IMF said advanced economies are projected to grow by 1.3 percent this year, compared with 1.6 percent last year and 3.0 percent in 2010, with public spending cutbacks and the still-weak financial system weighing on prospects.
Growth in emerging market and developing economies was marked down compared with forecasts in July and April to 5.3 percent, against 6.2 percent last year. Leading emerging markets such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil will all see slower growth. Growth in the volume of world trade is projected to slump to 3.2 percent this year from 5.8 percent last year and 12.6 percent in 2010.
Global Financial Stability Report: Restoring Confidence and Progressing on Reforms
Global Financial Stability Report: Restoring Confidence and Progressing on Reforms
Source: International Monetary Fund
Chapter 3 of the October 2012 Global Financial Stability Report examines whether the regulatory reforms designed to make the financial system safer are moving the system in the correct direction, using a benchmark set of features that include financial institutions and markets that are more transparent, less complex, and less leveraged. The analysis suggests that progress has been limited so far, in part because many of the reforms are still in the early stages of implementation. Chapter 4 evaluates how aspects of current changes to financial structure, including those elicited from regulatory reforms, may be associated with economic outcomes. Both chapters stress that the success of measures to produce a safer financial system depend on effective implementation of reforms and strong supervision.
Small Island States in the Pacific: the Tyranny of Distance
Small Island States in the Pacific: the Tyranny of Distance
Source: International Monetary Fund
This paper seeks to document key characteristics of small island states in the Pacific. It restricts itself to a limited number of indicators which are macro-orientated – population, fertility of land, ability to tap into economies of scale, income, and geographic isolation. It leaves aside equally important but more micro-orientated variables and development indicators. We show that small island states in the Pacific are different from countries in other regional groupings in that they are extremely isolated and have limited scope to tap economies of scale due to small populations. They often have little arable land. There is empirical evidence to suggest that these factors are related to income growth.
