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Modelling the constraints on consanguineous marriage when fertility declines

January 30, 2014 Comments off

Modelling the constraints on consanguineous marriage when fertility declines
Source: Demographic Research

Background:
Consanguinity – or marriage between close blood relatives, in particular first cousins – is widely practised and even socially encouraged in many countries. However, in the face of fertility transition where the number of cousins eligible to marry declines, how might such constraints on consanguinity develop in the future?

Objective:
Numerous studies have stated that the practice cannot continue at present levels and in ist present form in the face of fertility transition. However, the future impact of fertility transition on availability of cousins to marry has not yet been quantified.

Methods:
We perform a simulation exercise using past and projected net reproduction rates (NRRs) derived from the UN. We calculate the average number of cousins of the opposite sex as a function of the average number of children, the average probability of an individual having at least one eligible paternal cousin of the opposite sex, and conclude with an examination of constraints on consanguineous marriage in selected countries under different fertility assumptions.

Results:
Current and projected fertility levels in Middle Eastern countries will create challenging constraints on the custom once today’s birth cohorts reach marriageable age.

Conclusions:
Either consanguinity prevalence will diminish significantly, or the institution will be forced to adapt by becoming more coercive in the face of reduced choice or at the expense of other social preferences (such as for an older groom wedding a younger bride). Fertility decline affects prospects for social change not only through its well-known consequences for mothers but also through shaping marriage conditions for the next generation.

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All tied up: Tied staying and tied migration within the United States, 1997 to 2007

October 15, 2013 Comments off

All tied up: Tied staying and tied migration within the United States, 1997 to 2007
Source: Demographic Research

Background:
The family migration literature presumes that women are cast into the role of the tied migrant. However, clearly identifying tied migrants is a difficult empirical task since it requires the identification of a counterfactual: Who moved but did not want to?

Objective:
This research develops a unique methodology to directly identify both tied migrants and tied stayers in order to investigate their frequency and determinants.

Methods:
Using data from the 1997 through 2009 U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), propensity score matching is used to match married individuals with comparable single individuals to create counterfactual migration behaviors: who moved but would not have moved had they been single (tied migrants) and who did not move but would have moved had they been single (tied stayers).

Results:
Tied migration is relatively rare and not limited just to women: rates of tied migration are similar for men and women. However, tied staying is both more common than tied migration and equally experienced by men and women. Consistent with the body of empirical evidence, an analysis of the determinants of tied migration and tied staying demonstrates that family migration decisions are imbued with gender.

Conclusions:
Additional research is warranted to validate the unique methodology developed in this paper and to confirm its results. One line of future research should be to examine the effects of tied staying, along with tied migration, on well-being, union stability, employment, and earnings.

Changing Patterns of Tobacco and Alcohol Co-Use by Gender in the United States, 1976-2010

March 26, 2013 Comments off

Changing Patterns of Tobacco and Alcohol Co-Use by Gender in the United States, 1976-2010

Source: Demographic Research

Background:

Smoking is a serious health concern both globally and in the U.S. Because drinking amplifies the negative health effects of smoking, the high association of these behaviors is an additional source of population morbidity. However, very little is known about trends in the co-use of smoking and drinking over time.

Objective:

To describe trends in tobacco use, alcohol use, and their co-use among U.S. youth, and to separate out trends in the association of smoking and drinking from trends in their marginal distributions.

Methods:

We use data on the smoking and drinking behaviors of 12th graders from 1976 to 2010 in the Monitoring the Future study to examine trends in smoking, drinking, and co-use separately by gender. In each year we estimate the degree of co-use attributable to tobacco and alcohol use probabilities as well as the association between tobacco and alcohol use.

Results:

Although the prevalence of tobacco and alcohol co-use has declined over time, the association of the two has increased. This association accounts for an increasing proportion of the co-use of tobacco and alcohol.

Conclusions:

We conclude that co-users of tobacco and alcohol are an increasingly select subpopulation. This suggests that continued decreases in the contribution of substance use to population health and mortality may not continue apace.

How do immigrants fare during the downturn? Evidence from matching comparable natives

February 12, 2013 Comments off

How do immigrants fare during the downturn? Evidence from matching comparable natives

Source: Demographic Research

Background: This paper provides empirical evidence regarding the supposed vulnerability of immigrants to the recent economic downturn.

Objective: Our purpose is to understand whether immigrant workers are suffering more from the downturn and, if so, to disentangle whether this is related to being an immigrant or to specific characteristics that make immigrants different from natives.

Methods: We use longitudinal data from the Italian Labour Force Survey to compare immigrant and native workers, matched for observable personal, household, and job characteristics by propensity score methods.

Results: Immigrant workers face a higher probability of ending an ongoing employment spell because their characteristics are more likely associated with higher separation rates, while, when comparing similar workers, differences with natives disappear. In 2009 job separations increased for all male workers, but the impact was stronger for immigrants, mainly because of their characteristics. On the contrary, both groups of female workers showed a slightly lower probability of losing a job in 2009, so that observed differences remained the same before and after the downturn.

Conclusions: The impact of the downturn differs markedly by gender, with only male workers being affected. Among these, immigrants suffer more than natives, as their observable characteristics are more associated with losing a job. When comparing only comparable workers, immigrant status itself has no impact on separation rates.

Educational Differences in Divorce in Japan

January 18, 2013 Comments off

Educational Differences in Divorce in Japan

Source: Demographic Research

Background: Evidence of a negative relationship between educational attainment and divorce in Japan is not consistent with predictions derived from standard theoretical emphases on the costs of divorce.

Objective: Using marital history data from a cross-sectional survey, we estimated educational differences in divorce for two marriage cohorts: 1980-89 and 1990-2005. We also used 14 years of panel survey data to evaluate four possible explanations for the observed negative educational gradient.

Results: Our results confirmed that educational attainment is inversely related to divorce in Japan, and showed that, in contrast to some previous findings, the negative relationship between women’s education and divorce has not become stronger in recent years. Analyses of the panel data provided some support for hypotheses that focused on the role of economic strain and on cultural values regarding reputation or "face," but they also showed that the negative relationship between education and divorce remained strong even after controlling for a range of posited correlates.

Conclusions: Our failure to solve the theoretical puzzle motivating these analyses suggests that other types of contextual modification to standard theories of family change are required to explain the strong negative relationship between educational attainment and divorce in Japan. We discussed possible examples of such modifications, focusing on the patterns of selection into marriage and the central importance of investment in children’s educational success in Japan’s highly competitive educational system, while also offering more nuanced theorization regarding the role of reputation or "face".

Residence and teenage birth rates: A potential non-stationary process in US counties

September 11, 2012 Comments off

Residence and teenage birth rates: A potential non-stationary process in US counties

Source: Demographic Research

BACKGROUND

Limited information is available about teenage pregnancy and childbearing in rural areas, even though approximately 20 percent of the nation’s youth live in rural areas. Identifying whether there are differences in the teenage birth rate (TBR) across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas is important because these differences may reflect modifiable ecological-level influences such as education, employment, laws, healthcare infrastructure, and policies that could potentially reduce the TBR.

OBJECTIVE

The goals of this study are to investigate whether there are spatially varying relationships between the TBR and the independent variables, and if so, whether these associations differ between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.

METHODS

We explore the heterogeneity within metropolitan/nonmetropolitan county groups separately using geographically weighted regression (GWR), and investigate the difference between metropolitan/nonmetropolitan counties using spatial regime models with spatial errors. These analyses were applied to county-level data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the US Census Bureau.

RESULTS

GWR results suggested that non-stationarity exists in the associations between TBR and determinants within metropolitan/nonmetropolitan groups. The spatial regime analysis indicated that the effect of socioeconomic disadvantage on TBR significantly varied by the metropolitan status of counties.

CONCLUSIONS

While the spatially varying relationships between the TBR and independent variables were found within each metropolitan status of counties, only the magnitude of the impact of the socioeconomic disadvantage index is significantly stronger among metropolitan counties than nonmetropolitan counties. Our findings suggested that place-specific policies for the disadvantaged groups in a county could be implemented to reduce TBR in the US.

The Second Demographic Transition in Israel: One for All?

September 4, 2012 Comments off

The Second Demographic Transition in Israel: One for All?

Source: Demographic Research

This article explores family behaviours and attitudes in Israel over the last decades through the lens of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). Israel is divided by religious affiliation, the level of religiosity, ethnic origin and timing of immigration. Although fertility transition to replacement level among certain societal groups has been previously shown, the question of how the transition unfolds in other domains remains open. The goal of this paper is to highlight the diversity of marital and fertility transitions and non-transitions among various groups of this heterogeneous society, and to compare Israel’s transitions to European ones. The data sources which are used are cross-national large scale surveys, national representative surveys, and Population Register data. The data were disaggregated by religion, religiousness and ethnic origin. Emancipative value change, postponement of marriage, alternative living arrangements and a growing variety of fertility regimes were analyzed. A full range of pre-transitional, transitional, and post-transitional elements was found among the groups. Such sign of the SDT as growing childlessness was not found, and the spread of other features as unmarried cohabitation and non-marital childbearing was found limited. Population composition effects were isolated. It was found that the level of religiosity and the country of origin are important factors which differentiate family behaviours and attitudes. The connection between value orientation of the groups within Israel and their family behaviours is discussed. The socio-structural and institutional constraints that might impede further progression of the Second Demographic Transition in Israel are also discussed. Further research directions are suggested.

Regional family cultures and child care by grandparents in Europe

July 13, 2012 Comments off

Regional family cultures and child care by grandparents in Europe

Source: Demographic Research

BACKGROUND

Child care is widely considered a key issue in confronting demographic change in Europe today, given its centrality in the labour market participation of parents, and of mothers in particular. There are considerable international differences in child care practices throughout Europe, and earlier comparative research has indicated that structural factors do not suffice to explain them.

OBJECTIVE

We investigate whether or not, next to structural differences, cultural factors also play a role in European international variations in child care practices, and more specifically the use of grandparental child care.

METHODS

Using the second wave of the European Social Survey, this paper scores subnational regions of 23 European countries on different dimensions of family norms and practices. We construct regional indicators and use them in a multilevel analysis of the use of grandparents as the main source of child care by European mothers.

RESULTS

Results show that European mothers’ reliance on grandparental child care is influenced by individual characteristics and the supply of formal child care, but also by the normative climate in the region they live in. Irrespective of the attitudes individually held, we find that mothers in more conservative regions are more inclined to use grandparents as the main source of child care instead of formal alternatives.

CONCLUSIONS

European patterns of child care use are not only subject to structural factors as the supply of formal care provisions for children. Preferences and attitudes prevalent in the regions in which young parents live form an important part of the picture too.

The effects of integration and transnational ties on international return migration intentions

December 6, 2011 Comments off

The effects of integration and transnational ties on international return migration intentions (PDF)
Source: Demographic Research

While return migration is receiving increasing attention, there is still insufficient insight into the factors which determine migrants’ intentions and decisions to return. It is often assumed that integration in receiving countries and the concomitant weakening of transnational ties decreases the likelihood of returning. However, according to alternative theoretical interpretations, return migration can also be the outflow of successful integration in receiving countries. Drawing on a data set of four African immigrant groups in Spain and Italy, this articlereviews these conflicting hypotheses by assessing the effects of integration and transnational ties on return migration intentions. The results of the analysis suggest that socio-cultural integration has a negative effect on return migration intentions, while economic integration and transnational ties have more ambiguous and sometimes positive effects. The results provide mixed support for the different hypotheses but question theoretical perspectives that unequivocally conceptualize return migration and transnationalism as causes and/or consequences of "integration failure".

Who fears and who welcomes population decline?

October 5, 2011 Comments off

Who fears and who welcomes population decline?
Source: Demographic Research

European countries are experiencing population decline and the tacit assumption in most analyses is that the decline may have detrimental welfare effects. In this paper we use a survey among the population in the Netherlands to discover whether population decline is always met with fear. A number of results stand out: population size preferences differ by geographic proximity: at a global level the majority of respondents favors a (global) population decline, but closer to home one supports a stationary population. Population decline is clearly not always met with fear: 31 percent would like the population to decline at the national level and they generally perceive decline to be accompanied by immaterial welfare gains (improvement environment) as well as material welfare losses (tax increases, economic stagnation). In addition to these driving forces it appears that the attitude towards immigrants is a very strong determinant at all geographical levels: immigrants seem to be a stronger fear factor than population decline.

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Cohort change, diffusion, and support for gender egalitarianism in cross-national perspective

October 1, 2011 Comments off

Cohort change, diffusion, and support for gender egalitarianism in cross-national perspective
Source: Demographic Research

Arguments about the spread of gender egalitarian values through a population highlight several sources of change. First, structural arguments point to increases in the proportion of women with high education, jobs with good pay, commitment to careers outside the family, and direct interests in gender equality. Second, value-shift arguments contend that gender norms change with economic affluence among women and men in diverse positions—at all levels of education, for example. Third, diffusion arguments suggest that structural changes lead to adoption of new ideas and values supportive of gender equality by innovative, high-education groups, but that the new ideas later diffuse to other groups. This study tests these arguments by using International Social Survey Program surveys in 1988, 1994, and 2002 for 19 nations to examine gender egalitarianism across 85 cohorts born from roughly 1900 to 1984. Multilevel models support diffusion arguments by demonstrating that the effects of education first strengthen with early adoption of gender egalitarianism and then weaken as other groups come to accept the same views. However, the evidence of a sequence of divergence and convergence in educational differences across cohorts appears most clearly for women in Western nations.

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The changing determinants of UK young adults´ living arrangements

September 28, 2011 Comments off

The changing determinants of UK young adults´ living arrangements
Source: Demographic Research

The postponement of partnership formation and parenthood in the context of an early average age at leaving home has resulted in increased heterogeneity in the living arrangements of young adults in the UK. More young adults now remain in the parental home, or live independently of the parental home but outside of a family. The extent to which these trends are explained by the increased immigration of foreign-born young adults, the expansion in higher education, and the increased economic insecurity faced by young adults are examined. Shared non-family living is particularly prominent among those with experience of higher education, whilst labour market uncertainty is associated with an extended period of co-residence with parents.

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Intergenerational family constellations in contemporary Europe: Evidence from the Generations and Gender Survey

September 16, 2011 Comments off

Intergenerational family constellations in contemporary Europe: Evidence from the Generations and Gender Survey
Source: Demographic Research

Demographic research has drawn attention to the multiple ways in which changes in mortality and childbearing have produced major shifts in intergenerational family structures. The aim of this article is to contribute to this body of research by analysing the data from the Generations and Gender Surveys for nine European countries. In the study, data pertaining to the availability of ascending (parents and grandparents) and descending kin (children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren) of the respondent are combined to shed light on the family structures in which indviduals are embedded at various stages of their lives. The findings provide new insights into the ways in which the past and present diversity of demographic regimes comes together into specific patterns of intergenerational family constellations across Europe. This convergence may yield family constellations of very similar “height” in countries with sharply contrasting demographic histories. The results also indicate that certain demographic scenarios may halt or temporarily reverse the trend towards the further vertical extension of family constellations.

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The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe

August 25, 2011 Comments off

The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe
Source: Demographic Research

Periods of high and persistent unemployment since the late 1980s as well as an upward trend in the share of temporary employment characterize recent labor market instability in Europe. This paper analyzes the associations between timing to a second birth and changing economic environment. In particular, it focuses in understanding what dimensions of economic uncertainty affect women with different educational background. First it employs time varying measures of aggregate market conditions for women in twelve European countries as well as micro-measures of each woman’s labor market history in a proportional hazard model of second births. Both individual and aggregate unemployment as well as temporary employment are coupled with later second births. Unemployment slows down childbearing plans, particularly for the least educated, whereas holding a very short contract deters the most educated. Second, I use the 2006 Spanish Fertility Survey to show how education and the economic conditions – provincial unemployment and share of temporary employment- faced by women as they enter the labor market in their early twenties are connected with their timing to second births.

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Household composition across the new Europe: Where do the new Member States fit in?

August 18, 2011 Comments off

Household composition across the new Europe: Where do the new Member States fit in?
Source: Demographic Research

In this paper we present indicators of household structure for 26 of the 27 countries of the post-enlargement European Union. As well as broad indicators of household type, we present statistics on single-person and extended-family households, and on the households of children and older people. Our main aim is to assess the extent to which household structure differs between the “old” and “new” Member States of the European Union. We find that most of the Eastern European countries may be thought of as lying on the same North-North-Western-Southern continuum defined for the “old” EU Member States, and constituting an “extreme form” of the Southern European model of living arrangements, which we term the “Eastern” model. However, the Baltic states do not fit easily onto this continuum.

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The future of death in America

July 4, 2011 Comments off

The future of death in America
Source: Demographic Research

Population mortality forecasts are widely used for allocating public health expenditures, setting research priorities, and evaluating the viability of public pensions, private pensions, and health care financing systems. Although we know a great deal about patterns in and causes of mortality, most forecasts are still based on simple linear extrapolations that ignore covariates and other prior information. We adapt a Bayesian hierarchical forecasting model capable of including more known health and demographic information than has previously been possible. This leads to the first age- and sex-specific forecasts of American mortality that simultaneously incorporate, in a formal statistical model, the effects of the recent rapid increase in obesity, the steady decline in tobacco consumption, and the well known patterns of smooth mortality age profiles and time trends. Formally including new information in forecasts can matter a great deal. For example, we estimate an increase in male life expectancy at birth from 76.2 years in 2010 to 79.9 years in 2030, which is 1.8 years greater than the U.S. Social Security Administration projection and 1.5 years more than U.S. Census projection. For females, we estimate more modest gains in life expectancy at birth over the next twenty years from 80.5 years to 81.9 years, which is virtually identical to the Social Security Administration projection and 2.0 years less than U.S. Census projections. We show that these patterns are also likely to greatly affect the aging American population structure. We offer an easy-to-use approach so that researchers can include other sources of information and potentially improve on our forecasts too.

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Reproductive contributions of Taiwan´s foreign wives from the top five source countries

May 22, 2011 Comments off

Reproductive contributions of Taiwan´s foreign wives from the top five source countries
Source: Demographic Research

This research studies the reproductive contributions of Taiwan’s foreign wives from China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines, based on applications of the multinomial logit model to the micro data of the 2003 Census of Foreign Spouses. Wives from China are found to have the lowest lifetime fertility of 1.4 children, mainly because they were more prone to marry later, have a very large spousal age gap, be separated or divorced, and have their current marriage be their second marriage. The effect of wife’s educational attainment on lifetime fertility turned out to be either modest or nonexistent.

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A note on race, ethnicity and nativity differentials in remarriage in the United States

February 14, 2011 Comments off

A note on race, ethnicity and nativity differentials in remarriage in the United States
Source: Demographic Research

The objectives of this study are to produce up-to-date estimates of race/ethnic/nativity differentials for remarriage and repartnership among women in the United States and to see if these differences are due to across-group differences in demographic characteristics. First, we produce lifetable estimates of remarriage and repartnering for white, black, U.S. born Latina and foreign born Latina women. Next, we estimate race/ethnic/nativity differentials for remarriage and repartnership using event-history analysis with and without controls for demographic characteristics. The results suggest a continued overall decline in remarriage rates, while many women repartner by cohabitating. Whites are more likely than blacks or Latinas to remarry and they are also more likely to repartner. Race/ethnic/nativity differentials remain even after accounting for variations in demographic characteristics. This suggests that race/ethnic/nativity differentials in remarriage and repartnering rates, rather than ameliorating disadvantages associated with divorce, reinforce these differentials.

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A summary period measure of immigrant advancement in the U.S.

February 10, 2011 Comments off

A summary period measure of immigrant advancement in the U.S.
Source: Demographic Research

This paper proposes a method for summarizing the pace of advancement of the foreign-born population in a given period. The method standardizes for variations in the duration of residence or age composition of immigrant groups, attainments possessed by different groups when first observed after entry, and other temporal effects on measured advances, forming an index of Expected Lifetime Advance based on the pace of change in a period. The measure is applied to Mexican and Asian immigrants. Between the 1980s and the 1990s, the rates of advancement for Mexicans accelerated in six out of seven social, economic, and civic outcomes. Rates of advancement for Asians were similar in both decades.

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