Archive
The New Sick Man of Europe: the European Union
The New Sick Man of Europe: the European Union
Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project
The European Union is the new sick man of Europe. The effort over the past half century to create a more united Europe is now the principal casualty of the euro crisis. The European project now stands in disrepute across much of Europe.
Support for European economic integration – the 1957 raison d’etre for creating the European Economic Community, the European Union’s predecessor – is down over last year in five of the eight European Union countries surveyed by the Pew Research Center in 2013. Positive views of the European Union are at or near their low point in most EU nations, even among the young, the hope for the EU’s future. The favorability of the EU has fallen from a median of 60% in 2012 to 45% in 2013. And only in Germany does at least half the public back giving more power to Brussels to deal with the current economic crisis.
The sick man label – attributed originally to Russian Czar Nicholas I in his description of the Ottoman Empire in the mid-19th century – has more recently been applied at different times over the past decade and a half to Germany, Italy, Portugal, Greece and France. But this fascination with the crisis country of the moment has masked a broader phenomenon: the erosion of Europeans’ faith in the animating principles that have driven so much of what they have accomplished internally.
The prolonged economic crisis has created centrifugal forces that are pulling European public opinion apart, separating the French from the Germans and the Germans from everyone else. The southern nations of Spain, Italy and Greece are becoming ever more estranged as evidenced by their frustration with Brussels, Berlin and the perceived unfairness of the economic system.
These negative sentiments are driven, in part, by the public’s generally glum mood about economic conditions and could well turn around if the European economy picks up. But Europe’s economic fortunes have worsened in the past year, and prospects for a rapid turnaround remain elusive. The International Monetary Fund expects the European Union economy to not grow at all in 2013 and to still be performing below its pre-crisis average in 2018. Nevertheless, despite the vocal political debate about austerity, a clear majority in five of eight countries surveyed still think the best way to solve their country’s economic problems is to cut government spending, not spend more money.
These are among the key findings of a new study by the Pew Research Center conducted in eight European Union nations among 7,646 respondents from March 2 to March 27, 2013.
How Housing Matters: Americans’ Attitudes Transformed By The Housing Crisis & Changing Lifestyles
How Housing Matters: Americans’ Attitudes Transformed By The Housing Crisis & Changing Lifestyles (PDF)
Source: John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
From press release:
After decades of equating home ownership with the American Dream, post-housing crisis realism about the risks and rewards of owning a home have led to greater support for rental housing and a more balanced approach in national housing policy, according to a new survey of housing attitudes released today.
The How Housing Matters Survey, a new national survey conducted by Hart Research Associates and commissioned by the MacArthur Foundation, found while financial markets, as well as homebuilding and home sales data, may suggest the prolonged housing crisis is over, the American public is not ready to agree, with nearly 8 in 10 (77%) believing we are still in the middle of the crisis, or that the worst is yet to come. When it comes to remedying the housing crisis, two-thirds of adults (65%) now believe the focus of national housing policy should be split fairly equally between rental and ownership, as opposed to promoting one over the other. Three in five adults (61%) now believe that renters can be just as successful as owners in achieving the American Dream.
Public Support for Marriage for Same-sex Couples by State
Public Support for Marriage for Same-sex Couples by State
Source: Williams Institute on Sexual Orientation Law (UCLA)
By the end of 2012, 12 states and the District of Columbia had support for same-sex marriage at or above 50%. Of these 12 states, all currently perform marriages, civil unions, or domestic partnerships for same-sex couples. Thirteen additional states presently are within 5 percentage points of majority support. In the last eight years, every state has increased in its support for marriage for same-sex couples with an average increase of 13.6%. If present public opinion trends continue, another 8 states will be above 50% support by the end of 2014.
Resilient American Values: Optimism in an Era of Growing Inequality and Economic Difficulty
Resilient American Values: Optimism in an Era of Growing Inequality and Economic Difficulty
Source: Council on Foreign Relations
Despite an extended period of economic difficulty, Pew Research Center pollsters Andrew Kohut and Michael Dimock show that Americans’ core values and beliefs about economic opportunity, and the nation’s economic outlook, remain largely optimistic and unchanged. There is also little evidence that economic class is becoming a greater factor in shaping American values than in the past. Americans are certain that the nation can solve its problems, that hard work ultimately pays off, and that income divides are an acceptable part of a healthy economy. But they increasingly see a lack of fairness in public policies that are failing to promote economic opportunity.
Widespread Middle East Fears that Syrian Violence Will Spread
Widespread Middle East Fears that Syrian Violence Will Spread
Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project
As concern mounts about the Syrian government’s possible use of chemical weapons against its own people, publics in the Middle East – especially the Lebanese – are extremely worried about violence spreading to neighboring countries. Nonetheless, a new survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted before news emerged of alleged use of chemical agents by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, found little regional support for Western or Arab countries sending arms and military supplies to anti-government groups in Syria. And there is even greater opposition among American and European publics to such indirect Syrian involvement by their governments. A more recent Pew Research nationwide U.S. poll finds that hard evidence that Damascus has engaged in chemical warfare would only lead to a modest increase in American public support for an allied military effort in Syria.
Meanwhile, Assad is very unpopular throughout the region, except among Shia Muslims in Lebanon. In turn, Lebanese Muslims are divided over aid to the rebels. Most Sunnis back such assistance, while Shia overwhelmingly oppose it.
These are the key findings from a new survey by the Pew Research Center of 11,771 people in 12 countries from March 3 to April 7, 2013. Surveyed countries include Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian territories and Tunisia in the Middle East; Germany, France and Britain in Europe; and the United States and Russia.
State Governments Viewed Favorably as Federal Rating Hits New Low
State Governments Viewed Favorably as Federal Rating Hits New Low
Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
Even as public views of the federal government in Washington have fallen to another new low, the public continues to see their state and local governments in a favorable light. Overall, 63% say they have a favorable opinion of their local government, virtually unchanged over recent years. And 57% express a favorable view of their state government – a five-point uptick from last year. By contrast, just 28% rate the federal government in Washington favorably. That is down five points from a year ago and the lowest percentage ever in a Pew Research Center survey.
The percentage of Democrats expressing a favorable opinion of the federal government has declined 10 points in the past year, from 51% to 41%. For the first time since Barack Obama became president, more Democrats say they have an unfavorable view of the federal government in Washington than a favorable view (51% unfavorable vs. 41% favorable). Favorable opinions of the federal government among Republicans, already quite low in 2012 (20% favorable), have fallen even further, to 13% currently.
Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Residents Most Likely to Feel Safe; Memphis area residents least likely to feel safe
Source: Gallup
Eighty percent of those living in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area say they feel safe walking alone at night in the area where they live, the highest percentage among the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. Minneapolis is followed closely by Denver, Raleigh, Boston, Salt Lake City, and Austin.
A Third of Americans Say They Like Doing Their Income Taxes
A Third of Americans Say They Like Doing Their Income Taxes
Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
As April 15 approaches, a majority of Americans (56%) have a negative reaction to doing their income taxes, with 26% saying they hate doing them. However, about a third (34%) say they either like (29%) or love (5%) doing their taxes.
The national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted April 4-7 among 1,003 adults, finds that the expectation of getting a refund is cited most often for why people like doing their taxes, but it is not the only factor.
When asked why they like doing their income taxes, 29% say that they are getting a refund, while 17% say they just don’t mind it or they are good at it; 13% say doing their taxes gives them a sense of control, while the same percentage cites a feeling of obligation – that it is their duty to pay their fair share.
Among those who dislike or hate doing their taxes, most cite the hassles of the process or the amount of time it takes: 31% say it is complicated, requires too much paperwork or they are afraid of making mistakes, while 24% say it is inconvenient and time-consuming. A much smaller share (12%) says they dislike doing their taxes because of how the government uses tax money. Just 5% of those who dislike or hate doing their income taxes say it is because they pay too much in taxes.
Majority Now Supports Legalizing Marijuana
Majority Now Supports Legalizing Marijuana
Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
For the first time in more than four decades of polling on the issue, a majority of Americans favor legalizing the use of marijuana. A national survey finds that 52% say that the use of marijuana should be made legal while 45% say it should not.
Support for legalizing marijuana has risen 11 points since 2010. The change is even more dramatic since the late 1960s. A 1969 Gallup survey found that just 12% favored legalizing marijuana use, while 84% were opposed.
4-4-13 #2The survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted March 13-17 among 1,501 adults, finds that young people are the most supportive of marijuana legalization. Fully 65% of Millennials –born since 1980 and now between 18 and 32 – favor legalizing the use of marijuana, up from just 36% in 2008. Yet there also has been a striking change in long-term attitudes among older generations, particularly Baby Boomers.
Half (50%) of Boomers now favor legalizing marijuana, among the highest percentages ever. In 1978, 47% of Boomers favored legalizing marijuana, but support plummeted during the 1980s, reaching a low of 17% in 1990. Since 1994, however, the percentage of Boomers favoring marijuana legalization has doubled, from 24% to 50%.
Generation X, born between 1965 and 1980, came of age in the 1990s when there was widespread opposition to legalizing marijuana. Support for marijuana legalization among Gen X also has risen dramatically – from just 28% in 1994 to 42% a decade later and 54% currently.
The Silent Generation continues to be less supportive of marijuana legalization than younger age cohorts. But the percentage of Silents who favor legalization has nearly doubled –from 17% to 32% – since 2002.
The Dynamics of Health Behavior Sentiments on a Large Online Social Network
The Dynamics of Health Behavior Sentiments on a Large Online Social Network
Source: EPJ Data Science
Modifiable health behaviors, a leading cause of illness and death in many countries, are often driven by individual beliefs and sentiments about health and disease. Individual behaviors affecting health outcomes are increasingly modulated by social networks, for example through the associations of like-minded individuals – homophily – or through peer influence effects. Using a statistical approach to measure the individual temporal effects of a large number of variables pertaining to social network statistics, we investigate the spread of a health sentiment towards a new vaccine on Twitter, a large online social network. We find that the effects of neighborhood size and exposure intensity are qualitatively very different depending on the type of sentiment. Generally, we find that larger numbers of opinionated neighbors inhibit the expression of sentiments. We also find that exposure to negative sentiment is contagious – by which we merely mean predictive of future negative sentiment expression – while exposure to positive sentiments is generally not. In fact, exposure to positive sentiments can even predict increased negative sentiment expression. Our results suggest that the effects of peer influence and social contagion on the dynamics of behavioral spread on social networks are strongly content-dependent.
Citizenship, Values and Cultural Concerns: What Americans Want From Immigration Reform
Citizenship, Values and Cultural Concerns: What Americans Want From Immigration Reform
Source: Public Religion Research Institute and Brookings Institution
The following is a summary of the survey’s findings and highlights from the accompanying report:
- More than 6-in-10 (63%) Americans agree that the immigration system should deal with immigrants who are currently living in the U.S. illegally by allowing them a way to become citizens, provided they meet certain requirements. Less than 1-in-5 (14%) say they should be permitted to become permanent legal residents but not citizens, while approximately 1-in-5 (21%) agree that they should be identified and deported.
- More than 7-in-10 (71%) Democrats, nearly two-thirds (64%) of independents, and a majority (53%) of Republicans favor an earned path to citizenship
- Majorities of all religious groups, including Hispanic Catholics (74%), Hispanic Protestants (71%), black Protestants (70%), Jewish Americans (67%), Mormons (63%), white Catholics (62%), white mainline Protestants (61%), and white evangelical Protestants (56%), agree that the immigration system should allow immigrants currently living in the U.S. illegally to become citizens provided they meet certain requirements.
- Americans rank immigration reform sixth out of seven issues, far behind economic issues, as the highest political priority for the president and Congress.
- Nearly half (45%) of Americans say the Republican Party’s position on immigration has hurt the party in recent elections.
- Americans are more likely to say they trust the Democratic Party, rather than the Republican Party, to do a better job handling the issues of immigration (39% vs. 29%) and illegal immigration (43% vs. 30%). However, nearly 1-in-4 (23%) Americans say they do not trust either party to handle the issue of immigration.
- Views about immigrants’ impact on American society are strongly associated with political ideology. Conservatives (36%) and liberals (31%) are nearly equally as likely to say that immigrants are changing their own communities a lot. However, conservatives (53%) are significantly more likely than liberals (38%) to say that immigrants are changing American society a lot.
- Overall, Americans are more likely to have positive rather than negative views about immigrants. A majority (54%) of Americans believe that the growing number of newcomers from other countries helps strengthen American society, while a significant minority (40%) say that newcomers threaten traditional American customs and values.
Growing Support for Gay Marriage: Changed Minds and Changing Demographics
Growing Support for Gay Marriage: Changed Minds and Changing Demographics
Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
The rise in support for same-sex marriage over the past decade is among the largest changes in opinion on any policy issue over this time period. A new national survey finds that much of the shift is attributable to the arrival of a large cohort of young adults – the Millennial generation – who are far more open to gay rights than previous generations. Equally important, however, is that 14% of all Americans – and 28% of gay marriage supporters – say they have changed their minds on this issue in favor of gay marriage.
The long-term shift in the public’s views about same-sex marriage is unambiguous. Polling conducted in 2003 found most Americans (58%) opposed to allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally, and just a third (33%) in favor. The new survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted March 13-17, 2013 among 1,501 adults nationwide, confirms that these figures have crossed, with 49% supporting same-sex marriage, and 44% opposed.
Jobs, Value and Affirmative Action: A Survey of Parents About College
Jobs, Value and Affirmative Action: A Survey of Parents About College
Source: Inside Higher Ed
Study hard, and you’ll get into the college of your dreams.
It’s debatable whether that advice — given to generations of American children — was ever really true. But the first Inside Higher Ed poll of parents of pre-college students suggests that the truer statement today might be “study hard and you can get into the college we can afford,” or perhaps “study hard, and we’ll help you get into a college that can find you a job.”
Only about 16 percent of parents are sure they won’t restrict colleges to which their children will apply because of concerns about costs (although another 14 percent said that it was “not very likely” that they would do so), the results show. Parents are also likelier to see vocational certificates than liberal arts degrees as leading to good jobs for their children — and they view job preparation as the top role for higher education.
And at a time that a case before the Supreme Court could limit the way colleges use affirmative action, the poll found that most parents (including most white parents) do not believe that affirmative action is costing their children spots in college.Parental concerns about paying for college and the importance of college programs that prepare students for jobs appear to grow as children get closer to college age, the poll found.
What Matters to Australians: Our Social, Political and Economic Values
What Matters to Australians: Our Social, Political and Economic Values (PDF)
Source: Australia Research Council (Anatomy of Civil Societies Research Project)
Societies are complex entities with competing and conflicting and supporting and reinforcing characteristics. This study, part of a multiyear project sponsored by the Australian Research Council (ARC) in conjunction with the University of Technology, Sydney and Melbourne Business School, seeks to chart the social, economic and political preferences of our society using a unique methodology that provides us with a more accurate and robust picture of how we, as citizens, make fundamental trade-offs about things of material interest to our society.
The study was conducted in Australia with more than 1,500 participants chosen to match the profile of the voting age population. Similar studies were conducted in the UK, USA and Germany. Examined were 16 categories of general social, economic and political issues that ranged from the local (e.g., crime & public safety) to the global (e.g., global security) along with 113 subissues that also varied from the local (e.g., public transport and children’s schooling) to the global (e.g., nuclear non-proliferation and third world debt). This information was linked to information on the population’s religious and political activities, its general demographics, and donating and volunteering activities with civil society organisations.
Some obvious and not so obvious results arise from this study. What is perhaps most obvious is that local issues dominate global issues. Most fundamentally – at both the category and individual issue levels – Australians are much more concerned about issues that relate to them and their local community. A less obvious finding is how little these preferences of Australians vary across the demographic spectrum. There is a tendency to believe that the ‘rich’ are different from the ‘poor’ or that the ‘old’ are different from the ‘young’ or men from women. However, our results show that this is less likely than expected. Although some demographic differences exist, they are fundamentally marginal and do not really drive the big issues motivating the population at large. More important is that these preferences are related to people’s political orientation.
What is potentially the most critical finding is the degree to which a strongly emotive issue – environmental sustainability – has fallen in the general preferences of Australians. A critical issue of concern in 2007, environmental sustainability – both as a general category and when examined at the specific issue level – is today a middling issue that is neither salient nor not salient.
Overall, our results present a nuanced view of the social, economic and political preferences of the Australian population. It is valuable in informing businesses, policy makers, politicians and civil society organisations in developing their strategies for the future.
The Groupon Effect on Yelp Ratings: A Root Cause Analysis
The Groupon Effect on Yelp Ratings: A Root Cause Analysis (PDF)
Source: arXiv.org
Daily deals sites such as Groupon offer deeply discounted goods and services to tens of millions of customers through geographically targeted daily e-mail marketing campaigns. In our prior work we observed that a negative side effect for merchants using Groupons is that, on average, their Yelp ratings decline significantly. However, this previous work was essentially observational, rather than explanatory. In this work, we rigorously consider and evaluate various hypotheses about underlying consumer and merchant behavior in order to understand this phenomenon, which we dub the Groupon effect. We use statistical analysis and mathematical modeling, leveraging a dataset we collected spanning tens of thousands of daily deals and over 7 million Yelp reviews. In particular, we investigate hypotheses such as whether Groupon subscribers are more critical than their peers, or whether some fraction of Groupon merchants provide significantly worse service to customers using Groupons. We suggest an additional novel hypothesis: reviews from Groupon subscribers are lower on average because such reviews correspond to real, unbiased customers, while the body of reviews on Yelp contain some fraction of reviews from biased or even potentially fake sources. Although we focus on a specific question, our work provides broad insights into both consumer and merchant behavior within the daily deals marketplace.
Figuring Faith | What Do American Catholics Want From the New Pope?
Figuring Faith | What Do American Catholics Want From the New Pope?
Source: Public Religion Research Institute
In the coming weeks, debates over next pope will be not only about the person who will embody the office but about how the church will wrestle with shifting demographics and the relationship between tradition and modern culture. A look at these shifts and tensions among American Catholics provides a microcosm into the larger global dynamics at play.
First, the Catholic Church has been experiencing significant demographic and geographic transformations over the last century. In the American context, the demographic changes began relatively recently. In 1990, nearly 8-in-10 (78 percent) Catholics were white, while less than 1-in-5 (14 percent) were Hispanic. Today, less than two-thirds (63 percent) of Catholics are white, while nearly 3-in-10 (29 percent) Catholics are Hispanic. In other words, in the span of two decades, the ratio of white to Hispanic Catholics has dropped from 5-to-1 to 2-to-1. This shift has also had considerable impact on the Catholic political engagement, given the decidedly different profiles of white Catholics and Hispanic Catholics: in the 2012 election, 75 percent of Hispanic Catholics voted for Barack Obama, while 59 percent of white Catholics voted for Mitt Romney.
The MetLife Survey of the American Teacher: Challenges for School Leadership
The MetLife Survey of the American Teacher: Challenges for School Leadership (PDF)
Source: MetLife
Major Findings
- Principals take responsibility for leadership of their schools.
- The job of principal is becoming more complex and stressful.
- Teachers take leadership in schools and think principals are doing a good job.
- The biggest challenges leaders face are beyond the capacity of schools alone to address.
- Principals and teachers have similar views on academic challenges, but diverge somewhat on their priorities for leadership.
- Teacher satisfaction continues to decline.
- Challenges cited by educators are greater in high-needs schools.
- Educators are confident about implementing the Common Core, less so about its potential for increasing student success.
GOP Seen as Principled, But Out of Touch and Too Extreme
GOP Seen as Principled, But Out of Touch and Too Extreme
Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
At a time when the Republican Party’s image is at a historic low, 62% of the public says the GOP is out of touch with the American people, 56% think it is not open to change and 52% say the party is too extreme.
Opinions about the Democratic Party are mixed, but the party is viewed more positively than the GOP in every dimension tested except one. Somewhat more say the Republican Party than the Democratic Party has strong principles (63% vs. 57%).
Survey | After Newtown, Increasing Number of Americans Say Better Mental Health Screenings Most Important Way to Prevent Future Mass Shootings
Source: Public Religion Research Institute
From press release:
Americans are more likely to believe that improving mental health screening and support is the best way to prevent mass shootings, compared to enacting stricter gun laws, putting a greater emphasis on God and morality in school and society, having stricter security at public gatherings, or allowing more private citizens to carry guns, a new survey released today finds.
Three-in-ten (30 percent) Americans say that better mental health screening and support is the best way to prevent mass shootings from occurring in the United States, an eight-point increase from a survey conducted in August 2012 (22 percent). The first part of the January Religion and Politics Tracking Survey, conducted by Public Religion Research Institute, finds increased support for improving mental health services among both Democrats (24 percent in August vs. 31 percent today) and Republicans (17 percent in August vs. 27 percent today).
Over the past six months, which have included shootings in a Connecticut elementary school, a Colorado movie theater and a Wisconsin Sikh temple, the new survey also finds that support for stricter gun laws has increased by eight percentage points, from 52 percent in August 2012 to 60 percent today.
Most Approve of Ending Saturday Mail Delivery; Wide Racial Gap in Views of Postal Service Decision
Most Approve of Ending Saturday Mail Delivery; Wide Racial Gap in Views of Postal Service Decision
Source: Pew Research Center for the People & The Press
A majority of Americans (54%) approve of the U.S. Postal Service’s recent decision to halt Saturday delivery of letters, while 32% disapprove of the decision. The planned end of Saturday mail delivery is a rare government decision that garners bipartisan support – 58% of independents approve of the action, as do 57% of Republicans and 51% of Democrats.
Most Americans say they have heard or read at least a little about the Postal Service’s announcement that they plan to stop Saturday delivery of letters to address budget shortfalls. Majorities of those who have heard a lot (67%) or a little (56%) about the action approve of it.
But those who have heard nothing at all about the decision – 16% of the public – disapprove of stopping Saturday mail delivery by more than two-to-one (60% disapprove vs. 25% approve).
The national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted Feb. 7-10 among 1,004 adults, finds that blacks are the only major demographic group in which a majority (55%) opposes the Postal Service decision to halt Saturday delivery. Whites approve of the decision by more than two-to-one (61% to 26%)
