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State Revenue Report; Strong Growth in the First Half; Softening Growth Outlook for the Rest of 2013

December 23, 2013 Comments off

State Revenue Report; Strong Growth in the First Half; Softening Growth Outlook for the Rest of 2013 (PDF)
Source: The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government

According to the new Special State Revenue Report, the growth in state tax revenues softened significantly in the third quarter of 2013. However, such slowdown is not a sign of warning, but more an indication that the impact of federal tax changes on state tax revenues had faded away and states are back to a slower revenue growth trend.

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State Tax Revenues Gained Strength in 2010, Following Deep Declines

March 12, 2011 Comments off

State Tax Revenues Gained Strength in 2010, Following Deep Declines
Source: Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government

After the deepest recession since the Great Depression, most states are now on the gradual road to tax revenue recovery, according to new data from the Rockefeller Institute of Government.

State tax revenues continued to rebound during the third and fourth quarters of 2010, according to the Institute’s latest quarterly State Revenue Report.

Compared to the same period a year ago, revenues increased 4.5 percent in the third quarter of 2010. Forty-three states reported total tax revenue growth during the third quarter, with 10 showing double-digit growth.

Preliminary figures for October-December 2010, for 41 early-reporting states “indicate new strength in state tax revenues,” according to the report. Collections in that period were up 6.9 percent compared to a year earlier. Such a gain, if maintained in the full fourth-quarter data that will be available in several weeks, would represent the strongest growth since the second quarter of 2006.

However, these preliminary figures show overall collections for the fourth quarter of 2010 still only about 3 percent above the level of two years ago and just slightly below the level of three years ago. And several important indicators suggest broad state fiscal conditions remain fragile. These include the record revenue declines during the Great Recession, continued upward trends in state spending, and unemployment rates that remain nearly double their pre-recession levels, to name a few. While some economic indicators signal improvement in overall conditions, fiscal recovery for the states typically lags a national turnaround and is likely to take several years.

+ Full Report (PDF)

See also: Errors in State Revenue Estimates Growing in Size and Frequency

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