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United States Geological Survey fire science–Fire danger monitoring and forecasting
United States Geological Survey fire science–Fire danger monitoring and forecasting
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Each day, the U.S. Geological Survey produces 7-day forecasts for all Federal lands of the distributions of number of ignitions, number of fires above a given size, and conditional probabilities of fires growing larger than a specified size. The large fire probability map is an estimate of the likelihood that ignitions will become large fires. The large fire forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on federal lands exceeding 100 acres in the forthcoming week. The ignition forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land greater than 1 acre in the forthcoming week. The extreme event forecast is the probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land that may exceed 5,000 acres in the forthcoming week.
The Long-Term Impact of Physical and Emotional Trauma: The Station Nightclub Fire
The Long-Term Impact of Physical and Emotional Trauma: The Station Nightclub Fire
Source: PLoS ONE
Background
Survivors of physical and emotional trauma experience enduring occupational, psychological and quality of life impairments. Examining survivors from a large fire provides a unique opportunity to distinguish the impact of physical and emotional trauma on long-term outcomes. The objective is to detail the multi-dimensional long-term effects of a large fire on its survivor population and assess differences in outcomes between survivors with and without physical injury.
Methods and Findings
This is a survey-based cross-sectional study of survivors of The Station fire on February 20, 2003. The relationships between functional outcomes and physical injury were evaluated with multivariate regression models adjusted for pre-injury characteristics and post-injury outcomes. Outcome measures include quality of life (Burn Specific Health Scale–Brief), employment (time off work), post-traumatic stress symptoms (Impact of Event Scale–Revised) and depression symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory). 104 fire survivors completed the survey; 47% experienced a burn injury. There was a 42% to 72% response rate range. Although depression and quality of life were associated with burn injury in univariate analyses (p<0.05), adjusted analyses showed no significant relationship between burn injury and these outcomes (p = 0.91; p = .51). Post-traumatic stress symptoms were not associated with burn injury in the univariate (p = 0.13) or adjusted analyses (p = 0.79). Time off work was the only outcome in which physical injury remained significant in the multivariate analysis (p = 0.03).
Conclusions
Survivors of this large fire experienced significant life disruption, including occupational, psychological and quality of life sequelae. The findings suggest that quality of life, depression and post-traumatic stress outcomes are related to emotional trauma, not physical injury. However, physical injury is correlated with employment outcomes. The long-term impact of this traumatic event underscores the importance of longitudinal and mental health care for trauma survivors, with attention to those with and without physical injuries.
US Fire Administration Releases Report on Heating Fires in Residential Buildings
US Fire Administration Releases Report on Heating Fires in Residential Buildings
Source: U.S. Fire Administration
Fall begins this Saturday, and with it comes cooler temperatures and the resulting seasonal increase in the number of home heating fires. To help Americans understand the nature of the heating fire problem, the U.S. Fire Administration (USFA) today issued a special report: Heating Fires in Residential Buildings (2008-2010). Developed by USFA’s National Fire Data Center, the report is based on data from the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS).
According to the report:
- An estimated average of 50,100 heating fires in residential buildings occurred in the United States each year and resulted in an annual average of approximately 150 deaths, 575 injuries, and $326 million in property loss.
- Heating was the second leading cause of all residential building fires following cooking.
- Residential building heating fires peaked in the early evening hours between 5 and 9 p.m. with the highest peak between 6 and 8 p.m. This 4-hour period accounted for 30 percent of all residential building heating fires.
- Residential building heating fires peaked in January (21 percent) and declined to the lowest point during the summer months from June to August.
- Confined fires, those fires confined to chimneys, flues, or fuel burners, accounted for 87 percent of residential building heating fires.
- Thirty percent of the nonconfined residential building heating fires occurred because the heat source was too close to combustibles.
US Fire Administration Releases Report on Portable Heater Fires in Residential Buildings
US Fire Administration Releases Report on Portable Heater Fires in Residential Buildings
Source: U.S. Fire Administration
The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) U.S. Fire Administration (USFA) announces the release of a special report examining the characteristics of portable heater fires in residential buildings. The report, Portable Heater Fires in Residential Buildings (2008-2010), was developed by USFA’s National Fire Data Center and is based on 2008 to 2010 data from the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS).
According to the report:
- An estimated 900 portable heater fires in residential buildings are reported to U.S. fire departments each year and cause an estimated 70 deaths, 150 injuries and $53 million in property loss.
- Only 2 percent of heating fires in residential buildings involved portable heaters, however, portable heaters were involved in 45 percent of all fatal heating fires in residential buildings.
- Portable heater fires in residential buildings peaked in January (26 percent).
- 52 percent of portable heater fires in residential buildings occurred because the heat source was too close to combustibles.
- 38 percent of portable heater fires in residential buildings originated in bedrooms. In these fires, bedding, such as blankets, sheets and comforters, was the leading item first ignited by portable heaters at 25 percent.
Strategic Roadmap for Fire Risk Reduction in Buildings and Communities
Strategic Roadmap for Fire Risk Reduction in Buildings and Communities
Source: National Institute of Standards and Technology
From press release:
The United States already has one of the highest direct fire loss rates among developed nations, and progress in reducing this tremendous burden is slowing.
Fires claim more than 3,000 lives a year, injure more than 90,000 firefighters and civilians, and impose costs and losses totaling more than $300 billion—equivalent to about 2 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product.
Fire researchers at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) believe that the devastating annual toll can be significantly reduced over the next two decades. Even better, they have a plan that prioritizes and details the research and other work needed to enable that goal.
Crafted with input from fire service organizations, standards and building-code developers, equipment manufacturers, insurers and others, NIST’s newly issued "strategic roadmap"* lays out a clear technological course for reducing the risk of fire in buildings and communities. It calls for tackling the nation’s fire problem on three fronts:
- Reducing fire hazards in buildings,
- Advancing firefighter technologies, and
- Reducing the risk of fire in communities bordering forests and "wildlands."
The new roadmap is NIST’s most comprehensive effort to establish fire-risk reduction goals for its programs since the influential America Burning report was published in the mid-1970s.
Identifying a Cost-Effective Aviation Fleet for the U.S. Forest Service
Identifying a Cost-Effective Aviation Fleet for the U.S. Forest Service
Source: RAND Corporation
Wildfires are dangerous and costly. They threaten population centers and wildlife habitats, degrade watersheds, and contribute to air pollution. At the same time, they are a natural part of the ecosystem in much of the American West. The cost of fighting these fires has risen dramatically over the past decade — to an average of $1.65 billion annually.
The U.S. Forest Service currently operates an aging fleet of contracted fixed-wing airtankers that provide aerial support for wildland firefighting. After two fatal crashes in 2002 led to more than half of the fleet being taken out of service, the Forest Service sought to replace its fleet with newer, safer aircraft. In support of this effort, the agency asked RAND to determine the composition of a fleet of airtankers, scoopers, and helicopters that would minimize the total social costs of wildfires, including the cost of large fires and aircraft costs.
USFA Announces 2011 Onduty Firefighter Deaths
USFA Announces 2011 Onduty Firefighter Deaths
Source: U.S. Fire Administration
The U.S. Fire Administration (USFA) announced today the release of the report Firefighter Fatalities in the United States in 2011. There were 83 onduty firefighter fatalities in the United States as a result of incidents that occurred in 2011. This represents a continuing decline in the overall number of firefighter fatality deaths in recent years and an almost five percent decrease from the 87 fatalities reported for 2010. When analyzing the overall trend in the United States going back to 1977, accounting for the Hometown Heroes added to totals since the law changed in 2004, the 2011 total represents the lowest year of record for the second year in a row.
The 83 fatalities occurred in 33 states, one U.S. territory, and one overseas U.S. military facility. Texas experienced the highest number of fatalities (7). North Carolina experienced six firefighter deaths and was the only other state with five or more firefighter fatalities.
Heart attacks were responsible for the deaths of 50 firefighters (60 percent) in 2011, nearly the same proportion of firefighter deaths from heart attack or stroke (63 percent) in 2010. Ten onduty firefighters died in association with wildland fires, the lowest number of annual firefighter deaths associated with wildland fires since 1996. Fifty-four percent of all firefighter fatalities occurred while performing emergency duties.
Four of the firefighters who died while responding to incidents in 2011 were killed by trauma caused by motor vehicle collisions, including three in privately-owned vehicles and one in a fire department apparatus.
Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity
Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity
Source: Ecosphere
Future disruptions to fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well-being throughout the world, yet there are few fire projections at global scales and almost none from a broad range of global climate models (GCMs). Here we integrate global fire datasets and environmental covariates to build spatial statistical models of fire probability at a 0.5° resolution and examine environmental controls on fire activity. Fire models are driven by climate norms from 16 GCMs (A2 emissions scenario) to assess the magnitude and direction of change over two time periods, 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. From the ensemble results, we identify areas of consensus for increases or decreases in fire activity, as well as areas where GCMs disagree. Although certain biomes are sensitive to constraints on biomass productivity and others to atmospheric conditions promoting combustion, substantial and rapid shifts are projected for future fire activity across vast portions of the globe. In the near term, the most consistent increases in fire activity occur in biomes with already somewhat warm climates; decreases are less pronounced and concentrated primarily in a few tropical and subtropical biomes. However, models do not agree on the direction of near-term changes across more than 50% of terrestrial lands, highlighting major uncertainties in the next few decades. By the end of the century, the magnitude and the agreement in direction of change are projected to increase substantially. Most far-term model agreement on increasing fire probabilities (62%) occurs at mid- to high-latitudes, while agreement on decreasing probabilities (20%) is mainly in the tropics. Although our global models demonstrate that long-term environmental norms are very successful at capturing chronic fire probability patterns, future work is necessary to assess how much more explanatory power would be added through interannual variation in climate variables. This study provides a first examination of global disruptions to fire activity using an empirically based statistical framework and a multi-model ensemble of GCM projections, an important step toward assessing fire-related vulnerabilities to humans and the ecosystems upon which they depend.
CRS — Wildfire Damages to Homes and Resources: Understanding Causes and Reducing Losses
Wildfire Damages to Homes and Resources: Understanding Causes and Reducing Losses (PDF)
Source: Congressional Research Service (via University of North Texas Digital Library)
Wildfires are getting more severe, with more acres and houses burned and more people at risk. This results from excess biomass in the forests, due to past logging and grazing and a century of fire suppression, combined with an expanding wild land-urban interface-more people and houses in and near the forests-and climate change, exacerbating drought and insect and disease problems. This report looks at the causes of wildfires, and the pros and cons of their treatment.
USFA, Office of Health Affairs Release Funding Alternatives for Emergency Medical and Fire Services
The U.S. Fire Administration (USFA), supported by the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Office of Health Affairs (OHA), and in partnership with the International Fire Services Training Association (IFSTA), announce the revision and release of Funding Alternatives for Emergency Medical and Fire Services (PDF, 3.7 Mb). The latest edition provides the most up to date information regarding funding for local level Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and fire departments. The document includes sources of federal funding as well as other new and innovative funding sources not discussed in previous editions.“Adequate funding is one of the most challenging issues facing EMS and fire departments today,” said U.S. Fire Administrator Ernest Mitchell. “This document provides valuable information for local-level departments facing financial challenges.”A key part of the project initiative was an enhanced study of critical funding issues for both fire and non-fire service based EMS systems.
+ Full Document (PDF)
Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA
Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA (PDF)
Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Understanding the causes and consequences of wildfires in forests of the western United States requires integrated information about fire, climate changes, and human activity on multiple temporal scales. We use sedimentary charcoal accumulation rates to construct long-term variations in fire during the past 3,000 y in the American West and compare this record to independent firehistory data from historical records and fire scars. There has been a slight decline in burning over the past 3,000 y, with the lowest levels attained during the 20th century and during the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1400–1700 CE [Common Era]). Prominent peaks in forest fires occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (ca. 950–1250 CE) and during the 1800s. Analysis of climate reconstructions beginning from 500 CE and population data show that temperature and drought predict changes in biomass burning up to the late 1800s CE. Since the late 1800s , human activities and the ecological effects of recent high fire activity caused a large, abrupt decline in burning similar to the LIA fire decline. Consequently, there is now a forest “fire deficit” in the western United States attributable to the combined effects of human activities, ecological, and climate changes. Large fires in the late 20th and 21st century fires have begun to address the fire deficit, but it is continuing to grow.
Hat tip: Journalist’s Resource
USFA Releases Civilian Fire Fatalities in Residential Buildings (2008-2010) Report
USFA Releases Civilian Fire Fatalities in Residential Buildings (2008-2010) Report
Source: U.S. Fire Administration
The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) United States Fire Administration (USFA) issued a special report today examining the characteristics of civilian fire fatalities in residential buildings. The report, Civilian Fire Fatalities in Residential Buildings (2008-2010) (PDF, 916 Kb), was developed by USFA’s National Fire Data Center and is based on 2008 to 2010 data from the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS).
According to the report:
- Ninety-two percent of all civilian fatalities in residential building fires involve thermal burns and smoke inhalation.
- The leading specific location where civilian fire fatalities occur in residential buildings is the bedroom (55 percent).
- Fifty percent of civilian fire fatalities in residential buildings occur between the hours of 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. This period also accounts for 47 percent of fatal fires.
- Thirty-six percent of fire victims in residential buildings were trying to escape at the time of their deaths; an additional 35 percent were sleeping.
“Other unintentionally set, careless” actions and “smoking” (each accounting for 16 percent) are the leading causes of fatal residential building fires.
Approximately 44 percent of civilian fatalities in residential building fires are between the ages of 40 and 69. Thirteen percent of the fire fatalities in residential buildings were less than 10 years old.
+ Full Report (PDF)
Trends and causes of severity, size, and number of fires in northwestern California, USA
Research in the last several years has indicated that fire size and frequency are on the rise in western U.S. forests. Although fire size and frequency are important, they do not necessarily scale with ecosystem effects of fire, as different ecosystems have different ecological and evolutionary relationships with fire. Our study assessed trends and patterns in fire size and frequency from 1910 to 2008 (all fires > 40 ha), and the percentage of high-severity in fires from 1987 to 2008 (all fires > 400 ha) on the four national forests of northwestern California. During 1910–2008, mean and maximum fire size and total annual area burned increased, but we found no temporal trend in the percentage of high-severity fire during 1987–2008. The time series of severity data was strongly influenced by four years with region-wide lightning events that burned huge areas at primarily low–moderate severity. Regional fire rotation reached a high of 974 years in 1984 and fell to 95 years by 2008. The percentage of high-severity fire in conifer-dominated forests was generally higher in areas dominated by smaller-diameter trees than in areas with larger-diameter trees. For Douglas-fir forests, the percentage of highseverity fire did not differ significantly between areas that re-burned and areas that only burned once (10% vs. 9%) when re-burned within 30 years. Percentage of high-severity fire decreased to 5% when intervals between first and second fires were .30 years. In contrast, in both mixed-conifer and fir/high-elevation conifer forests, the percentage of high-severity fire was less when re-burned within 30 years compared to first-time burned (12% vs. 16% for mixed conifer; 11% vs. 19% for fir/high-elevation conifer). Additionally, the percentage of highseverity fire did not differ whether the re-burn interval was less than or greater than 30 years. Years with larger fires and greatest area burned were produced by region-wide lightning events, and characterized by less winter and spring precipitation than years dominated by smaller human-ignited fires. Overall percentage of high-severity fire was generally less in years characterized by these region-wide lightning events. Our results suggest that, under certain conditions, wildfires could be more extensively used to achieve ecological and management objectives in northwestern California.
Full Paper (PDF)
See: Study of Wildfire Trends in Northwestern California Shows No Increase in Severity Over Time (Science Daily)
USFA Releases 2010 Fire Estimate Summary Series
Source: U.S. Fire Administration
The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) U.S. Fire Administration (USFA) issued the 2010 Fire Estimate Summary Series today which presents basic information on the size and status of the fire problem in the United States as depicted through data collected in USFA’s National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS). The data summary series was developed by USFA’s National Fire Data Center and is further evidence of FEMA’s commitment to sharing information with the American public, fire departments, and first responders around the country to help them keep their communities safe.
New From the GAO
New GAO Reports
Source: Government Accountability Office
+ Reports
1. Station Fire: Forest Service’s Response Offers Potential Lessons for Future Wildland Fire Management. GAO-12-155, December 16.
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-155
Highlights -
http://www.gao.gov/assets/590/587074.pdf
2. Recovery Act: Progress and Challenges in Spending Weatherization Funds. GAO-12-195, December 16.
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-195
Highlights -
http://www.gao.gov/assets/590/587063.pdf
Podcast -
http://www.gao.gov/multimedia/podcasts/587106
3. Medicaid: Health Opportunity Accounts Demonstration Program. GAO-12-221R, December 16.
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-221R
+ Reissued Product
1. Foster Children: HHS Guidance Could Help States Improve Oversight of Psychotropic Prescriptions. GAO-12-201, December 14.
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-201
Highlights -
http://www.gao.gov/assets/590/586907.pdf
New From the GAO
New GAO Reports
Source: Government Accountability Office
1. For-Profit Schools: Experiences of Undercover Students Enrolled in Online Classes at Selected Colleges. GAO-12-150, October 31.
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-150
Highlights -
http://www.gao.gov/highlights/d12150high.pdf
2. Arizona Border Region: Federal Agencies Could Better Utilize Law Enforcement Resources in Support of Wildland Fire Management Activities. GAO-12-73, November 8.
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-73
Highlights -
http://www.gao.gov/highlights/d1273high.pdf
3. Immigration Benefits: Consistent Adherence to DHS’s Acquisition Policy Could Help Improve Transformation Program Outcomes. GAO-12-66, November 22.
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-66
Highlights -
http://www.gao.gov/highlights/d1266high.pdf
4. User Fees: Additional Guidance and Documentation Could Further Strengthen IRS’s Biennial Review of Fees. GAO-12-193, November 22.
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-193
Highlights -
http://www.gao.gov/highlights/d12193high.pdf
USFA Releases Residential Building Fires Topical Report
USFA Releases Residential Building Fires Topical Report
Source: U.S. Fire Administration
The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) U.S. Fire Administration (USFA) announces the release of a special report focusing on the causes and characteristics of fires in residential buildings. The report, Residential Building Fires (PDF, 973 Kb), was developed by USFA’s National Fire Data Center. Residential buildings include what are commonly referred to as homes, whether they are one- or two-family dwellings or multifamily buildings. It also includes manufactured housing, hotels and motels, residential hotels, dormitories, assisted living facilities, and halfway houses.
According to the report:
- An estimated 374,900 residential building fires are reported to U.S. fire departments each year and cause an estimated 2,630 deaths, 13,075 injuries, and $7.6 billion in property loss.
- Cooking is the leading cause of residential building fires (44 percent). Nearly all residential building cooking fires are small, confined fires (94 percent).
- Residential building fire incidence is higher in the cooler months, peaking in January at 11 percent.
- Residential building fires occur most frequently in the early evening hours, peaking during the dinner hours from 5 p.m. to 8 p.m., when cooking fires are high.
- Forty-six percent of nonconfined residential building fires extend beyond the room of origin. The leading causes of these larger fires are electrical malfunctions (16 percent), unintentional or careless actions (15 percent), intentional (12 percent), and open flame (11 percent).
- Smoke alarms were not present in 21 percent of the larger, nonconfined fires in occupied residential buildings.
+ Full Report (PDF)
USFA Releases Annual Report on Firefighter Fatalities in the United States
USFA Releases Annual Report on Firefighter Fatalities in the United States
Source: U.S. Fire Administration
The United States Fire Administration (USFA) today released the report Firefighter Fatalities in the United States in 2010 (PDF, 2.5 Mb). The report continues a series of annual studies by the USFA of onduty firefighter fatalities. The USFA is the single public agency source of information for all onduty firefighter fatalities in the United States each year.
Eighty-seven onduty firefighters from 31 states lost their lives as the result of 83 fatal incidents that occurred in 2010. This is the second consecutive year of substantially fewer firefighter deaths in the United States. During the previous six-year period of 2004-2009, the average number of annual onduty firefighter deaths was 112. Illinois experienced the highest number of fatalities with nine firefighters killed; New York and Ohio had the next highest totals with eight firefighter deaths each.
+ Full Report (PDF)
The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth
The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth
Source: Journal of Biogeography
Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but ‘natural’ (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from ‘natural’ background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre-human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.
USFA Releases Civilian Fire Fatalities in Residential Buildings Report
USFA Releases Civilian Fire Fatalities in Residential Buildings Report
Source: U.S. Fire Administration
The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) U.S. Fire Administration (USFA) issued a special report today examining the characteristics of civilian fire fatalities in residential buildings. The report, Civilian Fire Fatalities in Residential Buildings (PDF, 1.0 Mb), was developed by USFA’s National Fire Data Center and is based on 2007 to 2009 data from the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS).
According to the report:
- Ninety-one percent of all civilian fatalities in residential building fires involve thermal burns and smoke inhalation.
- Bedrooms (55 percent) are the leading location where civilian fire fatalities occur in residential buildings.
- Fifty-one percent of civilian fire fatalities in residential buildings occur between the hours of 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. This period also accounts for 49 percent of fatal fires.
- Seventy percent of fire victims in residential buildings were escaping (36 percent) or sleeping (34 percent) at the time of their deaths.
- Smoking was the leading cause of fatal residential building fires.
- Males accounted for 57 percent of civilian fire fatalities in residential buildings; women accounted for 43 percent of the fatalities.
- Approximately 43 percent of civilian fatalities in residential building fires are between the ages of 40 and 69.
- Thirteen percent of civilian fire fatalities in residential buildings were less than 10 years old.
+ Full Report (PDF)
